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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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