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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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