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Wednesday, 02 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET TO STAY ELEVATED IN START OF 2013 BUT THE NEW YEAR WILL NOT BE WITHOUT TURBULENCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its regular update on the dry bulk market, BIMCO forecasted, that Capesize time-charter rates are expected to stay elevated in the following six weeks at around $9,000 – 16,000. "Panamax is expected to be found in the USD 6,000-10,000 per day interval. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates to remain in the USD 7,000-9,500 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates are forecast to stay at the interval of USD 6,000-9,000 per day" the shipping organization said.
In its outlook, BIMCO's report noted that "the effect on asset prices stemming from the large inflow of new tonnage is felt across the board by all owners. Lately, the pressure on second-hand values has been so severe that the correlation with newbuilding prices is off. What once was a rather strong early indicator (correlation above 90%) of where newbuilding prices were heading, is now derailed, as Clarkson’s Bulkcarrier Secondhand Prices Index is exposing a price change of -29% as compared to the end of November last year. During the same period, the Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price index is down by no more than 8%. Clearly, the erosion of vessel values is causing problems for ship owners and for the providers of finance. Balance sheet assets and liabilities are stretched at length, which puts even more strength in a positive and fairly predictable strong cash-flow to back the business. Q4 has brought about some optimism, with the BDI now at 1,022 driven primarily by strong Capesize demand. Leaving a disastrous 2012 behind, a stronger 2013 is most likely in the making, but don’t expect a lightning strike" the report said.
Meanwhile, in the supply side of things, BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that "following an immensely hectic delivery pace during the first two quarters of the year at 30 and 33.5 million DWT respectively, things were back at “normal” in the 3rd quarter at 20.34 million DWT. Now, as we know the year-to-date numbers at the end of November coming in at 92.3 million DWT, the slowdown is considerable and happening across the board and not exclusively in China. Out of 1,118 dry bulk carriers launched so far in 2012, 579 have been delivered from Chinese shipyards (51%). Despite the recent slowdown, deliveries are forecast to go higher towards the end of the year, bringing the deliveries tally beyond the 100 million DWT mark for the second year in a row. Going forward, 2013 deliveries are “front end loaded”, with 52% in the first six months and 32% in the final six months, leaving 16% without a fixed delivery month.
The demolition of commercially obsolete tonnage has reached 517 vessels of 31 million DWT. This has positively reduced the active fleet, which nonetheless has grown by 9.8% since the turn of the year. In respect of demolition, 2012 has been just as good as the freight market has been bad. Despite disruptions at major demolition sites, the total demolition yard capacity has proved sufficiently large. India, followed by Bangladesh, took the lion’s share in that market" Sand noted.
In a separate analysis, shipbroker Intermodal, said that with shipping finance "on the ropes" as traditional lenders appear to be cutting their losses and tonnage oversupply still the most important issue plaguing freight markets, the shipping industry is looking at yet another challenging year ahead, as 2013 is edging closer and closer. According to most market analysts, a potential recovery has to be postponed until at least 2014, but things could get even worse in the meantime, as a result of potentially further troubles in Europe.
According to Intermodal's report, "the hit this time will be taken by the already crippled ship finance sector, with the upcoming banking reform possibly further limiting available credit lines to owners. Yet, the above will prove to be only a mere drop in the vast ocean of the future obstacles the shipping industry has to overcome. The worst possible effects of this banking reform will be with regards to trade rather than shipping investment itself. With shipping being a derived demand, this is something beyond the control of the industry’s players" said the report.
Intermodal's George Lazaridis said in the note that "what is in the industry players' control, is the performance of supply and how well it is organised to meet global requirements and that’s where the main focus should remain. As we stand now, it will be supply that will dictate the duration and extent of the damage caused to the industry. Owners have already taken steps to limit the fleet growth rate as much as they can. The noticeable delays and cancellations of newbuildings that have taken place this year have helped put a cap on the fleet growth rate. At the same time, thanks to a significant slowdown in new orders being placed, the orderbook has decreased dramatically. The final piece to the puzzle, though by no means of smaller importance, has been the record scrapping volumes witnessed this year" he said.
Lazaridis added that "with demand playing the most important role in giving a decisive direction to the market, it looks as though it may be heading for a drop, despite all these above measures taken. What’s important is to know by how much; If the stormy weather that is approaching is of “hurricane force”, we may find ourselves forming bridges of laid-up vessels. If on the other hand, we take the most optimistic case, it may well be that we will still have a number of troubled owners, witnessing their cash flows “run aground”. In any case this will leave distressed assets ripe for the picking for all those shipping funds that have amassed over the past years" he noted".
From all of us in the Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide team, we'd like to wish you and your families a Happy New Year!
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
Wednesday, 02 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.61 PERCENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,533,183 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 31 December 2012, Newc ...
Monday, 31 December 12
KOSEP IS LOOKING FOR 280K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR APRIL - JUNE 2013
COALspot.com : South Korean state-owned utility Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOSEP), has issued an new tender for prompt supply of 280,00 ...
Monday, 31 December 12
VALE CELEBRATES ARRIVAL OF "VALE SOHAR" BULK CARRIER TO SULTANATE WITH MEMBERS OF COMMUNITY
'Vale Sohar', one of the largest bulk carriers in the world, was welcomed to Oman by members of the North Al Batinah community headed by H.E. Shei ...
Monday, 31 December 12
"DISTRESSED", "ECO" AND "FINANCE" ARE THE THREE WORDS WHICH CHARACTERIZED 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
2012 was yet another year of speculation, anticipation, pessimism and more speculation in the shipping markets. According to the latest weekly repor ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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