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Monday, 24 December 12
BUNKER PRICES TO CONTINUE RISING, ALBEIT IN A SLOWER MODE, DURING THE NEXT FEW YEARS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEW
 In a recent report, US-based consulting firm Mcquilling Services attempted to forecast the course of bunker prices during the next few years, as this factor is among the most important ones when it comes to ship owning operating costs. According to the company's projection, 2013 average bunker prices are expected to reach $690 per ton, while by 2017, bunker costs are forecast to average $760 per ton. During 2012, the basket of bunker prices reached an all-time high of almost $750 per ton in early March. "This was influenced by an upward spike in crude oil prices combined with robust demand for power generation from various countries. Although prices have since subsided, bunker prices are anticipated to rise in the coming years. This increase will be in line with higher crude oil prices, but also tighter supplies due to secondary capacity additions and changes to the international crude slate. Tanker earnings will continue to be pressured, which will encourage owners to explore methods to boost fuel efficiency" Mcquilling Services said.
It continued by explaining its methodology noting that "in our annual Tanker Market Outlook, McQuilling Services provides a bunker price forecast using the correlation between Dated Brent and the average bunker price. Dated Brent provides a more accurate gauge of international crude oil prices as it is not subject to the local logistical issues that affect the US benchmark WTI and it is considered the global oil price benchmark. In previous editions of the Tanker Market Outlook, we noted the correlation between Dated Brent and international bunker prices has shifted upwards as tighter specifications and refinery upgrades are reducing supplies. Between 1994 and 2007, the slope remained constant but started to steepen in 2008. This trend has continued into this year’s forecasting cycle.
The report added that "in our 2012 Tanker Market Outlook, we forecast that Dated Brent would average US $105 per barrel and bunker prices US $650 per ton. Year-to-date Dated Brent has been roughly US $111 per barrel or 3% above our forecast while bunkers averaged US $675 per ton, about 4% higher than projected. Going forward we see limited upward support for international crude oil prices as the global economy is expected to remain under pressure while supplies should remain relatively ample.
Global crude production should remain supported by the expectation that output in North America will increase throughout the forecast period. Saudi Arabia will continue to be the most influential swing supplier of OPEC nations while Russian production should also continue to hover around 10 million b/d. Political risks that could result in reduced production, especially in the Middle East and North Africa will remain present. Demand growth from non-OECD economies will stay healthy throughout the forecast period which will help absorb displaced barrels, in particular from the Caribbean, as a result of rising North American crude oil production. This will support ton-mile demand in particular for the larger tanker classes" it said.
Mcquilling Serviced concluded its argument by saying that "this year’s medium term forecast anticipates that bunker prices will rise slowly over the next three years. This range bound activity will be influenced by a rising share of natural gas consumption in both industrialized and developing nations that will provide some balance to market fundamentals. The rise in the latter part of the forecast period is the result of tighter bunker fuel specifications combined with the growth in sophistication of the global downstream industry".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
HOLIDAY ACTIVITY SCARCE IN THE MARKET OF SECOND HAND VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although the market for second hand vessel purchasing was quite lull during the Holiday period, as is usually the case, the first days of the New Ye ...
Tuesday, 08 January 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3.197 MILLION MT OF COAL W/E 7 JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,197,580 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 7 January 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 6.80 HIGHER THAN Q1 '13 PRICE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.37 percent WoW and CFR South China coal sh ...
Sunday, 06 January 13
COAL BOOM: WAKE-UP CALL FOR INDIA & INDONESIA! - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - Coal Boom : Scenario, Now & later!
Coal has been the dominant fuel for power generating plants in developed countries since th ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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