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Sunday, 23 December 12
Q4' 2013 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP, US$ 3.40 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2013 PRICE


COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery gained 1.94 percent M-M and WoW by 1.57percent but lost 0.35 percent D-D on Friday, 21 December 2012, according to the data released by AsiaClear OTC coal swaps on Friday.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swaps for average Q1’  2013 delivery was opened on 17 December 2012 at US$ 62.91pmt but closed at US$ 63.90 on 21 December 2012 with the gain of US cents 0.99 per MT. However the average Q4’  2013 delivery prices gained 3.33 percent for the same period.

Average Q4’  2013 deliveries for sub-bit Indonesia coal swap was opened at $ 64.72 pmt on 17 December  2012 and closed at $ 66.88 on 21 December 2012.  Average Q4’ delivery price has  lost US cents 2 PMT a day ago and cents 30 PMT from month ago but gained US $ 2.16  from week ago.

CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’  2013 delivery price also gained a day ago and a month ago, but flat w-o-w.

Average Q4’ 2013 delivery price also lost D-D and M-M but gained W-o-W. The contract for the average Q1’ 2013 prices gained US$ 1.34 W-o-W and closed at US$ 85.35 a ton on 21 December 2012. Average Q4 CFR South China coal shipment prices lost US cents 5 PMT D-o-D  and US cents  25 M-o-M.

In the meantime, sub-bit Indonesia coal swaps for Q1 delivery has lost on DOD, but gained w-o-w and m-o-m.

CFR South China coal shipments (average Q1’ 2013 delivery) was opened at $ 84.01 on 17 December  and closed at $ 85.35 on 21 December 2012 up US $ 1.34  PMT. In the meantime, the CFR South China coal swaps for Q4’ 2013  delivery gained 0.9 percent W-o-W but lost 0.05 percent on D-o-D.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for Q1’  2013 delivery closed at US$ 63.90 on 21 December 2012 compared to US$  62.91 Monday opening, gained US$ 0.99  per MT. CFR South China coal Q1’ 2013  delivery swaps also closed at US$ 85.35 up US$ 1.34 pmt W-W.

CFR South China coal, average Q4 2013 deliveries gained US$ 0.80 W-W, but lost D-o-D and M-o-M.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for average Q4 2013 delivery lost D-D and M-M  but gained W-W. Indonesia FOB swaps lost 0.02 percent D-D, 0.44 percent M-M  but gained 3.33 percent M-M.

A commodity swap is a financial agreement whereby a floating, or spot, price is exchanged for a fixed rate over a specified contract period.

AsiaClear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap for average Q4’ 2013 delivery closed US$  2.98 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price of US$ 63.90 on 21 December 2012. CFR South China coal swap for average Q4’  2013  delivery closed US$ 3.40 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price.

Indonesian government has sets its December HBA at US$ 81.75 for 6322 GAR coal. This month HBA is 0.38 percent higher  than November price but 27.44 percent lower than a year ago.

2013 coal swaps are not stable this week. It is very difficult to understand the market direction in 2013 from this week price closing. Coal prices are not stable and expected more volatile movements in coming weeks.  the firm prices directions can be seen next year mid February.

According to available data, Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped  33.578* million tons of coal in November 2012 which is around 4.45* percent lower compared to October exports.

Most of the Indonesian coal had shipped to China and India in November 2012. Indonesian low GCV coal is still an attractive fuel for Indian consumers due to its cheap price as well as lower freight. Indian coal imports from Indonesia has increased significantly in 2012 and expected it will reach more than 75 million tons in 2012. According to available information, Indonesia also shipped 300.488* million tons of coal (all grades included) in first 10 months. As usual 53.18* percent of total exported coal goes to china and India.

The physical prices of medium GVCV coal shows a little improvement last week.  However the pries are not significant to give a push to market.  The current price trend  is not much favoring coal producer.

China's coal imports in the first 11 months of 2012 have jumped nearly 30 percent to 205.5 million tonnes, as reported by Reuters. Analysts said China's coal imports are expected to rise further in 2013 on the back of weak overseas demand and low international coal prices, as quoted by Reuters.

IEA’s Medium-Term Coal Market Report sees that, coal demand increasing in nearly every region of the world except United States, where shale gas is displacing coal. Hence, US coal producers and suppliers are aggressively looking for Asian and European market to push their excess coal. The low freight market is also supporting US coal to enter in Asian market and US coal is now competing with Indonesia and Australian coal in India, Korea Taiwan and in China.

Coal’s share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world’s top energy source, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report (MCMR).

IEA said in its Medium-Term Coal Market Report, China and India lead the growth in coal consumption over the next five years. The report says China will surpass the rest of the world in coal demand during the outlook period, while India will become the largest seaborne coal importer and second-largest consumer, surpassing the United States.

According to our sources, 58.65* percent of Indonesia’s total coal exports in November has shipped to China and India.

Year 2013 is approaching. Maintaining a coal market equilibrium will help to drive coal prices to north direction, else year 2013 will be an another “year 2012” for coal producers.



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