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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 12 February 13
GOVERNMENT DECLARED INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE INCHES UP IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal has moved upwards in February 2013.
The monthly coal refere ...
Monday, 11 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.01 PERCENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,967,761 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 February 2013, Newc ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
INDONESIA SUB-BIT SWAPS: "UP" - CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS: "DOWN"
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.72 percent W-O-W and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
DRY BULK OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE SEEN WANING IN THE COMING MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
It seems that the tide could be shifting in the dry bulk market, in terms of tonnage oversupply, according to the latest data figures. This could ex ...
Sunday, 10 February 13
HIGHER BUNKER PRICE PUSHES SEA FREIGHTS FIRM - REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all at same levels with Chinese year holidays next week.
The BDI was slightly down by 0.27 pct ad ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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