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Thursday, 06 December 12
STRONG CHINESE DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES EXPECTED FOR 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A new analysis from BIMCO released yesterday suggests that 2013 is expected to be a stronger year in terms of China's "hunger" for commodities like iron ore and coal, which are the main products that larger dry bulk vessels are carrying. According to BIMCO's Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, "as we are heading into 2013, iron ore demand from the world’s largest consumer, China, is likely to provide a solid lift in demand alongside coal imports in Asia. BIMCO forecast Chinese iron ore imports to grow at a rate of 7.5% in 2013 up from 6.4% in 2012, driven by higher steel demand and the cost of the lower quality domestic ore.”
Statistical data seems to support this prediction. In September China imported the largest amount of iron ore since the record-high imports in January 2011. The 65.01 million tons imported in September strengthens the latest indication of a still growing Chinese demand for imported iron ore. A slight drop in the Chinese steel production from August shows that domestic miners grapple with a low iron content. "While imported iron ore has an average iron content of 63%, the stagnating steel production in China indicated that the implied iron content of domestic ore went south of 10% in September. The average iron content for Chinese iron ore is 14% for 2012. The iron content of Chinese iron ore is calculated residually utilising data on steel production, iron ore production, imports and port inventories. BIMCO calculations show that the Chinese iron ore content has declined since early 2008. This is good news for the dry bulk market, as it implies that the real costs of using domestically produced iron ore has increased" the report said.
It added that "the calculations provide a monthly forecast for iron ore imports, but the overview of the total iron ore input to the steel industry, domestically produced as well as imported is best seen on a quarterly basis where also the falling quality of the domestic ore is highlighted. It is this issue that presents a strong case for growing imports going forward at the expense of domestic production alongside a general growth in steel demand".
BIMCO expects that the monthly imports of iron ore in China will reach an average of 61 million tons in 2012. That number is expected to be higher next year, with a projection of 65 million tons of iron ore monthly. Aside from the declining quality of domestic iron ore, the demand driver for iron ore imports is the continued economic development in China, recently refuelled by the RMB 1 trillion infrastructure investment plans by the Chinese government.
Using a seasonally-adjusted linear expression, we estimate the following development in iron ore imports. The seasonal adjustment is done comparing a 3-month moving average for iron ore imports to a 12-month moving average. The seasonal factor is multiplied by the linear expression to acquire a number for iron ore imports.
As a consequence of the 7-day National Day holiday in early October, a drop in the Chinese steel production led to a fall in iron ore imports that month. According to BIMCO, "we expect imports to grow by a little more than 3 million tons in both November and December, making our 2012 estimate to be 730 million tons for Chinese iron ore imports – or 6.4% year-over-year. For 2013, BIMCO expect that China will increase their imports to 785 million tons – equal to 7.5% year-over-year. Translated into number of vessels, the iron ore import growth this year gives work to 39 Capesize vessels, with work for another 49 Capesize vessels in 2013 (estimating a Capesize that carries iron ore from Australia (2/3) and Brazil (1/3) can transport its cargo capacity 6.8 times a year). The majority of imported iron ore comes from Australia and Brazil. Out of the 57.6 million tons imported in July, more than half came from Australia and around one quarter came from Brazil, according to UN Comtrade. CRSL reports that in week 44, it cost USD10.35 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, while it cost USD22.45 to transport a ton of iron ore from Brazil to China.
This is still a long way from the happy days of 2008, where ship owners were paid USD50 to transport one ton of iron ore from Australia to China, and as much as USD107 per ton from Brazil to China. As it stands, the Chinese appetite for iron ore ensures that Capesize earnings should stay above an average of USD 9,000 per day in 2013. The reason for this being the positive outlook for iron ore demand as well as expected continuously higher demand for power generation in China and India. In the medium run, coal is likely to be the main contributing factor in boosting the demand side of the dry bulk sector. As laid out in the most recent BIMCO Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, October 2012, imported thermal coal volumes to the three top buyers are expected up by as much as 10%. In the short run, spot rates for transportation of coal may suffer a hit, as stockpiles remain at very high levels up 49% y-o-y, leaving little desire for more coal imports right now, but the stockpile effect may be partially offset by an upwards trend in electricity production as winter is approaching. “When we look into 2013, the fundamentals of the dry bulk segment are improving on both supply and demand side variables. We are still having a tonnage overhang but as we see global GDP improve, demand for dry bulk tonnage is also set to increase driven by surging demand for iron ore and coal. This development should ease the pressure on ship owners and operators” concluded Peter Sand.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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