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Sunday, 02 December 12
YEAR 2013, YEAR OF SUPPLY OR DEMAND?


COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1  2013 delivery gained 2.87 & 0.83 percent MoM and WoW  respectively but flat  DoD on Friday, 30 November 2012, according to the data released by AsiaClear OTC coal swaps on Friday.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal swaps for average Q1’  2013 delivery was opened on 26 November 2012 at US$ 62.2 pmt but closed at US$ 62.72 on 30 November 2012 gained around $ 0.52 pmt. But, average Q4’  2013 delivery price lost 0.19 percent per MT for the same period.

Average Q4’  2013 deliveries for Sub-Bit Indonesia coal was opened at $ 66.70 pmt on 26  November 2012 and closed at $ 66.57 on 30 November 2012.

CFR South China coal shipment for average Q1’  2013 delivery price gained but, average Q4’  2013 delivery price lost W-o-W. The contract for the average Q1’  2013 was unchanged at US$  84.28 a ton D-O-D. Average Q1, Q2, Q3 & Q4 CFR South China coal shipment prices lost 0.76, 1.44, 2.23 & 2.87 percent M-o-M. In the meantime, Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps gained 2.87, 2.45, 4.48 & 1.37 percents  for the same period.

CFR South China coal shipments (average Q1’ 2013 delivery) was opened at $ 83.96 on 26 November and closed at $ 84.28 on 30 November 2012 up US$ 0.32 PMT. In the meantime, CFR South China coal Q1’  2013 delivery prices closed unchanged D-o-D. The CFR South China coal swaps for Q4’ 2013  delivery lost 0.31 percent D-o-D and 0.37 percent on W-W for the same period.

Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for Q1’  2013 delivery closed at US$ 62.72 on 30 November 2012 compared to US$  62.20 Monday opening, gained US$ 0.55 per MT. In the meantime, CFR South China coal Q1’ 2013  delivery swaps closed at US$  84.28 up US$ 0.59 pmt W-W.

CFR South China coal, average Q4 2013 deliveries moved negatively  this week D-D, W-W and M-M. CFR South China coal, average Q4 2013 swaps lost 0.31 percent D-D, 0.37 percent W-W and 2.87 percent M-M.  Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia coal contracts for average Q4 2013 delivery also followed China swaps lost D-D and W-W but gained M-M. Indonesia FOB swaps lost 0.03 percent D-D, 0.19 percent W-W but gained 1.37 percent M-M.

A commodity swap is a financial agreement whereby a floating, or spot, price is exchanged for a fixed rate over a specified contract period.

AsiaClear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap for average Q4’  2013 delivery closed US$  3.85 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price of US$ 62.72 on 30 November 2012. CFR South China coal swap for average Q4’  2013  delivery closed US$  3.67 higher compared to average Q1’  2013  delivery price.

Swaps are showing a positive market condition during 2013.


Indonesian government has sets its November HBA at US$ 81.44 for 6322 GAR coal. November HBA is 5.35 per lower than October price or 30.18 percent lower than a year ago.

According to available data, Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter has shipped  35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012 which is around 19.85* percent higher compared to September exports. Most of the Indonesian coal goes to China and India in October 2013. Indonesian low GCV coal is still an attractive fuel for Indian consumers due to its cheap price as well as lower freight. Indian coal imports from Indonesia has increased significantly in 2012 and expected it will reach more than 75 million tons in 2012.

Several Indonesian small mines has suspended their operation as the current low coal prices not affordable for those high cost mines. Over supply of coal was partly blamed for current low coal prices. However Indonesian big  coal producers are still planning to increase their output by 2014 onwards. High output of coal from Indonesia and low demand from India and China, may not allow coal price recovery to a previous level within a short period.

July 2008 was the best month for the world’s coal industry. According to IMF data, Australian coal price was reached at US$ 192.86 per MT in July 2008, which is around 118.43 percent higher than October 2012 price. Indonesian HBA price also experienced a higher level in February 2011. The Indonesian government's declared HBA has reached US$ 127.05 in February 2011 which is around 56.00 percent higher than November 2012 HBA.

Is year 2013, year of supply or demand? -- Is buyer’s year or seller’s year?



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