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Friday, 30 November 12
IS INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON INDIA AND CHINA?


COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped  35,143,587* tons of coal in October 2012. October exports are 19.85* percent higher than September exports.

According to available information from coal exporters and various other sources, the China is the largest importer of Indonesian coal in October. China’s Indonesian coal imports has jumped to 11.32 * million tons in October meanwhile, India has imported 9.60 * million tons in the same month. Low coal prices were pushed higher coal exports in October, said a coal producer from South Kalimantan.

83.56* percent of total Indonesian coal exports in October shipped to top five traditional coal importers of Indonesian coal such as India, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

“Inquiries from India are still in the market, but the conclusions rates are lower compared to floating of inquiries"  said an international coal trader. The bids from buyers are still lower specially for low GCV coal.

Most of the Indonesian small scale miners have already suspended their coal production, as those mine’s operation cost were higher than current coal prices. However the October exported quantity was quite higher compared to last few months.

59.52* percent of Indonesia’s total coal exports in October shipped to China and India. It is seems that, Indonesian coal industry is over depends on China and India for its  exports. 

A coal miners from Indonesia agreed that, yes Indonesia is exporting more coal to China and India last few months or years.

“ Yes, Indonesian coal exports to China and India has increased significantly in the last couple of year. But we believe most of the large scale coal producers are managed their  risk very well by diversifying their marketing strategy fairly between the coal consuming countries including and China and India. However, it is contrary to the small scale producer who produces low CV coal to off spec coal, are subject to high risk and they are highly depends on those two countries,”

In the meantime, another miner said, China and India is depends on Indonesian coal. Both India and China are growing fast and they need more energy to meet their demand. Coal is still the recommended and cheapest energy for those two countries other than Hydro power. Hence as Indonesian coal producer, we no need worry or look for a alternative market immediately, as India or China will not suddenly changes their buying strategy or switch to  another sources for coal in near future.

However the same miner said, Indonesian coal miners also have to carefully monitor the market condition and equilibrium between supply and demand and adjust the production accordingly  to avoid oversupply which possibly lead to lower coal prices.

According to COALspot.com’s view, Indonesian coal industry is depends on India and China. Specially Indonesian small scale coal producers or IUP holders are pushing more coal to China and India on spot basis. If there is any sudden corrections on coal demand from India or China, then it will immediately react on Indonesian small scale coal producers.

According to mining law 4/2009 all the miners in Indonesia to requires all coal exporters to follow government declared coal prices ( HBA) when they conclude  a coal sales and purchase contract with their buyers.

The government declared minimum selling price of Indonesian coal for November delivery was lower than October  minimum price.

The reference price is to be used by coal producers for all spot and term contracts. This coal benchmark price is stated as using a formula based on the index average of ICI-1 (Indonesia Coal Index), Platts-5900, Newcastle Export Index, and global Coal Index. The assessment basis of the coal price reference was calculated considering coal with GCV 6,322kcal/kg (GAR), Total Moisture (AR) 8.00%, Total Sulphur 0.8% (AR), Ash Content 15% (AR) and delivery Free on Board (FOB) Vessel basis.

The government declared HBA in November dropped 5.35 percent M-O-M  and 30.18% percent Y-O-Y.

The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia sets the coal’s spot price benchmark for November 2012 at US$ 81.44 per ton (basis 6322 GAR coal), which was US$ 4.60 lower than October 2012 Price and  US$ 35.21 lower compared to the same period in 2011.

The coal export information within this article is provided by COALspot.com on an "as is" and "as available” basis. All details about, given in good faith and has been collected from various press reports, organization and individuals considered reliable but without guarantee.  While every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of information furnished in this article. COALspot.com shall be obliged if errors / omissions are brought to its notice for carrying out corrections in this article.* Figures are subject to verification (cs)



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