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Thursday, 22 November 12
DRY BULK MARKET RISE, BUT OUTLOOK SEEN DIM ON THE BACK OF RECORD NEW BUILDING DELIVERIES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has been under hefty pressure since the start of the year, as a result of record newbuilding deliveries and below-par demand for cargoes, which haven't been offset that much by the record pace of ship demolition activity. As a result, the industry's benchmark has been hovering around subdued levels for some time now. Yesterday, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up by 7 points to 1073, as a result of a rebound in Panamax   activity, which together with the rise of the Supramax segment, were able to negate the rapid fall of the Capesize market.

Commenting on the Capesize segment, the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnleys noted that "with last 5 trading days showing only marginal fluctuations in levels concluded despite increased volumes, sentiment again turning nervous as improved activity fails to lift spot. Far East appears the most vulnerable, with rates for the WAust/China trade falling 10% and general Pacific rounds almost 15% w-o-w. Atlantic remains the bright spot in comparison – but with more speculation of massive volumes to be moved from Brazil during December than actual fixing, a steady flow of ballasters could soon change this picture. Support from paper levels combined with owners seeking predictable income for 2013 have allowed for limited period activity - representative fixtures include 175k dwt/built 2011 done for 10-14 months with delivery China mid Dec at USD 11250, 175k dwt/built 2010 delivering China prompt for 11-17 months at USD 11350, and 180k dwt/built 2011 delivery China prompt for 11-18 months at USD 11250" said the shipbroker.

On the Panamax front, Fearnleys added that "the last week has been strong for the Panamaxes both in Atlantic and Pacific. A sudden shortage of ships for early positions in Atlantic have driven transatlantic rounds up to around USD 8k, much thanks to coal cargoes from US and also some more grain cargoes from South America. Fronthaul on the other hand is not quite as busy, but both USG/China and ECSA/China fetching around 14500+450k ballast bonus. It was reported a period fixture with Atlantic delivery of 11/13 months at USD 8500. In the Far East there is enough activity for the market to slowly move upwards even though there are plenty of ships available. Coal to China is probably the main driver. A Pacific round pays around USD 8500, but maybe more interestingly the short period market in Feast pays around USD 7750 indicating that market players doesn´t really believe in this market for the longer term" the shipbroker concluded.

Finally, on the Handy front, it said that "the north Continent is seeing plenty of tonnages but lack of cargoes. TA business are around 11k and fronthaul is around 17k.Tonnages has tightened slightly in the US Gulf. For USG - SE Asia/Far East large eco Supra fixed at USD 18k. The Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. India/China tct rate would be around USD 5k. Far East continues to be on positive side, 56k dwt fixing passing Spore for nickel ore RV at USD 13500. For Indo-India, large eco Supra now fixed at USD 12500 bss passing Spore. South Africa has been quiet this week. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens" it said.

In a similar report, Piraeus-based shipbroker Shiptrade & Services said about the Supramax front that "positive news for the Supramax market, especially in the Atlantic basin, where a number of fronthauls from the USG in combination with the tonnage shortage in the area pushed the BSI at 674 points. Trips from the USG to FEast are expected to pay around USD 16,000 for large-eco Supras, whereas trips with redelivery Continent expect to pay around USD 11,500. On the other hand, the Cont/Med market still suffers of oversupply of Supras resulting to a large number of spot vessels. However, scrap cargoes ex Continent to Emed are regulars, with rates fluctuating around USD 8,500 - 9,000. A number of ballasters towards Gibraltar are expected in order to pursue better cargo availability.

Admittedly, in the Pacific Supramax market, the only support comes from the Indonesian cargoes, whereas the India market has been on the quiet side for another week, however, with significantly good volume of coal and nickel ore cargoes. NOPAC rounds pay approximately USD 8,000 plus a ballast bonus USD 300k. The Indian market is still stable, with Supras being fixed for Indo/India orders with delivery Singapore at levels around USD 10,500 and redelivery ECI. The Indian Iron Ore to China is expected to pay around USD 5,750 but on low volumes, whereas, no change has been observed for another week on the RBCT round, with rates still at USD 8000 + 200K ballast bonus. A small increase in short period requirements has been seen, with rates for large and eco Supras hovering around USD 8,500 to 9,000 levels" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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