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Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012


With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that cash costs in many producing regions are coming close to, or are higher than spot market prices. However, globally the miners hit don’t seem to be making the production cuts necessary to stem a continued fall in prices. The Indonesian market is still under pressure but Indonesia is one of the world’s low cost suppliers so exporters should be well placed to ride out the storm.

Competition amongst low grade coals to serve the burgeoning Chinese and Indian markets is now more prominent, with Australia and Richards Bay becoming more transparent in offering high ash steam coals. The industry is now operating in a 5,500 kcal NAR world in comparison to the 6,000 kcal traded traditionally.

And while this is a market in oversupply, it does not lack demand growth. Imports into China and India continue to grow at an impressive rate, along with those of the traditional tiger economies of S Korea and Taiwan. However Indonesian and Australian exporters appear to be over-responding to the perceived power sector demand growth, placing too much coal into an already crowded market. With Colombian, South African and US material also advancing into the Pacific markets the sector is looking oversaturated in 2012.

- But what can we expect in 2013?
- Can the Chinese, with a new government and easier macro-economic conditions, continue to drive the market?
- Can India overcome the supply issues it is struggling with today?
- Will current prices drive production cuts to tighten the market?

Asia Pacific Coal Outlook Conference 2012
5th – 6th December 2012
The Grand Hyatt Hotel, Bali
Natalie Smith - +44 (0)7785 426 898
Natalie.Smith@ihs.com

To know more about IHS McCloskey Asia Pacific Coal Outlook Conference 2012 click here



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