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Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace of newbuilding deliveries don't leave ship owners much room for anything else. Today's market conditions could be very well described as the exact opposite of what was the case back in 2008, when scrapyards were literally pleading ship owners to sell them some of their older carriers, to keep them afloat, as most of them in places like India and Bangladesh were faced with closures. But, ship owners were finding out that their 25-year old vessels could fetch serious cash, either through the freight markets, or through a resale, so they had absolutely no incentives to scrap them.

Fast forward in 2012 and it's the opposite case, with owners looking to scrap and demolition yards enjoying an unprecedented boom. According to the latest weekly report from shipbrokers Intermodal, during the 10 months of 2012 (January-October) scrapping activity has reached new record heights. "All ships scrapped so far in 2012 amount to 55m tons of active carrying capacity, compared to 44m tons seen in 2011. We expect that demolition intake appetite will continue at the same pace as that experienced all throughout 2012, despite the small disruption this week during Diwali festivities, so we may well see that more than 1,500 ships, surpassing 60m tons dwt, will have been beached this year" said Intermodal's John N. Cotzias.

In the dry bulk sector, 489 bulkers have been scrapped totaling 30m dwt (432 units, 25m dwt 2011). "The average size of bulkers scrapped is 63,000dwt while in 2011 it was 57,000dwt. The average age of bulkers scrapped in 2012 is 28 years while in 2011 it was 31 years, so not only have we scraped bigger but also younger bulkers. Capes scrapped in 2012 are 74 (12.5m dwt) compared to the 67 Capes (11m dwt) seen in 2011, Panamaxes were 113 (7.6mil dwt) compared to 80 (5.4m dwt), Handymaxes were 84 (3.8m dwt) compared to 49 (2.2m dwt), Handysizes were 170 (5.4m dwt) compared to 131 (3.9m dwt). The net fleet growth for Bulkers during the past ten months has been 9.6%, while this could easily climb up to around 11% by the end of the year. As such it is interesting to note how important a role, the intensive scrapping has played in keeping the balance between the massive number of newbuilding deliveries and the growth in seaborne trade" Cotzias said.

In the tanker segment, "171 Tankers of 14m dwt have been withdrawn in 2012 (in 2011 we had 231 ships of 11.8m dwt). The average size of tankers scrapped is 82,000dwt while in 2011 it was 51,000dwt. The average age in 2012 is 26 years while in 2011 it was 29 years. We saw 19 (5.2m dwt) VLCCs scrapped in 2012, compared to 16 (11m dwt) in 2011, 24 Suezmaxes (3.5m dwt), compared to 2011 were we had 9 (1.3m dwt), 24 Aframaxes (2.4m dwt) compared to 2011 were we had 27 (2.6m dwt), 53 LR1 and MR ships (2.5m dwt) compared to 60 (2.6m dwt) in 2011. 202 (28m dwt) were the tanker newbuildings delivered during the first 10 months of 2012 and the net tanker fleet growth has been 3.2% so far, while scrapping has kept up pace equaling to half of the total newbuilding deliveries" the shipbroker's report noted.

Looking at the regional intake of every major demolition country, as always India leads the tables having taken 467 ships of 17.4mil dwt (4.2mt ldt), while Pakistan 95 ships of 9mil dwt (1.4mt ldt), Bangladesh 204 ships of 13.8mil dwt (2.4mt ldt), China 255 ships 11mil dwt (2.2mt ldt), and Turkey 226 ships of 2.1mil tns dwt (0.53mt ldt).

Intermodal's Cotzias concluded that "with steel prices still keeping firm, backed by a strong demand, and iron ore prices holding steady, we anticipate that demand for demolition candidates will remain strong during 2013, keeping the offered prices relatively close to today’s levels. This way, we may continue to see many ships leaving the active fleet, alleviating a heavily saturated and over-capacitated market that will likely hold through the last big lot of newbuilding deliveries in 2013.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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