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Monday, 15 October 12
IT'S STRICTLY COME CHARTERING - CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
 The charter market is a bit of a dance between ship owner and charterer: one leader, one follower; one step, two steps, turn... The dance is symbiotic and if both partners do well the outcome is a successful performance. Ideally, if both parties in a charter agreement do well the result is successful transportation, from which everyone benefits. However, if one partner starts stepping on the toes of the other there is always some pain.
Fascinatin’ Rhythm…
The rhythm of the shipping markets presents its dancers with choices. Do I charter short term or do I fix for longer periods? The answer in part depends on the different rates for the two choices. And, of course, it's also about timing. Our Graph of the Week shows, for a Panamax bulkcarrier, the trends for the two options. The solid line represents the one year time-charter rate and the dotted line the earnings that the vessel would have made for the same period on the spot market. This pas-de-deux is mostly led by the forward curve of spot earnings, with period rates following closely in step.
Come Join the Dance…
As earnings rise and fall, so the numbers on the dance floor change similarly. When rates rose to peaks in 2004-05, 2007 and 2010 so too did the number of fixtures. Conversely, low rates in 2001, 2006, 2009 and now in 2012 have seen fixtures decline.
Numbers were lowest in 2H 2001 when, with timecharter rates under $6,000/day, sometimes only one fixture a month was made. During the super-boom of 2007 almost 50 a month were recorded as rates soared to over $60,000/day. And most recently, in September with rates back down to under $3,000/day only 4 fixtures were concluded.
Reluctant Partners…
The turning points come when owners and charterers become reluctant partners. During 2002-04, 2006-08 and 2009-10 the forward spot curve was higher than for period rates. It was clearly in charterers’ interest to fix period rather than spot and indeed fixtures did increase. It was owners’ toes that were being stepped upon as they lost out on better spot rates.
For a short period in 2005 the roles were reversed and again, in 2008, the forward spot curve fell faster than period rates, giving owners an opportunity. However, in both periods charterers were less willing and the number of fixtures declined sharply. Now, with spot and period rates aligned it is less clear where the benefit lies; the number of fixtures is falling, but where will spot rates go?
Dancing in the Dark…
So, there you have it, owners and charterers can do the moves but they don’t always make the best of partners. Reading the spot market is the key and it appears that charterers have been getting the best of it, but both are really dancing in the dark. The benefits of the long term deal are never guaranteed when the casual excuse me can intercede.
Source: Clarkson Research Services / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
“ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: MIXED TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for November 2012 delivery lost 0.73 percent w-o-w but gained 0.41 percent d-o-d on Friday, 28 Se ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
INDONESIA HAS NO PLAN TO CAP COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com - “The current low coal prices were mainly due to a global oversupply condition, spurred by numerous mining exploitations in the ...
Sunday, 30 September 12
FREIGHT MARKET UNDER PRESSURE; OVERALL SENTIMENTS ARE STILL BEARISH
COALspot.com - The freight market seemed to have lost steam and all indices were down except for cape index.
The BDI was slightly down by 6 point ...
Friday, 28 September 12
DRY BULK SECOND HAND VESSELS ON HIGH DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the demise of the dry bulk market and the collapse of freight rates since the beginning of 2012, on the back of record breaking newbuilding ...
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