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Friday, 12 October 12
HOW REAL IS THE THREAT OF PIRACY? - BIMCO


The threat of modern piracy remains serious, regardless of its seasonal variations and the fact that it is chiefly confined to the Indian Ocean, Gulf of Guinea and rather less frequently the waters of South East Asia. Statistically, the numbers of ships attacked and captured by pirates when compared to the number of vessels transiting the Indian Ocean remains small, but the nature of that risk tends to outweigh mere statistics. It is simply unacceptable for ships to be captured and their crews subjected to confinement and unspeakable tortures at pirate hands, so the precautions that will reduce the likelihood of this capture must be taken.

As with any risk, both the probability and consequences must be considered and while the probability of a successful capture might be relatively small, the consequences are such that a mere “percentage game” with owners taking their chances would be irresponsible.

In the case of Somali piracy, the risks quite definitely vary with seasons, with the stormy monsoon period dissuading pirates from operations with their small skiffs, although there have been exceptions noted with the use of motherships. The temptation, during periods when attacks have been few, is to relax one’s guard and to stand down protection teams, but advice has been to the effect that this is a dangerous strategy, as the pirates may well be merely waiting for signs of such relaxation, before launching a fresh assault on shipping.

The pirates, or the controlling brains behind them, are well aware that time is on their side and they can afford to lie low until such time that they believe the guard is down and they will have a better chance of a successful attack. The fact there are still many seafarers still held hostage emphasises this need for ship operators to maintain all their best management practices. It must be recalled that the pirates have also varied their tactics in the past, learning from their mistakes and there is every reason to suppose that this process is continuing.

Ultimately, of course, it is a problem that will not be solved at sea, but by law enforcement ashore, along with the establishment of effective government in Somalia and efficient policing in the Northwest Indian Ocean and around West Africa. The ship operator can only deal with the consequences of a political situation and maintain vigilance until such time that it is safe to stand down the protection. There may be some positive signs from Southern Somalia where a government in Mogadishu is in place and extremists fought off by peacekeeping forces.

But we are clearly a long way from ensuring that the Puntland tribes around the Horn of Africa are engaged in only peaceful pursuits. The naval patrols, the security details aboard ship, the vessels wreathed in razor wire with crews “locked down” for days on end, all remain a reality and sensible precautions are required, as long as piracy threats remain real.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News



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