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Thursday, 11 October 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY AFTER CHINESE HOLIDAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market hasn't yet staged a solid rebound after last week's holidays in China, as many would have expected. Indeed, many analysts were anticipating elevated purchases of iron ore from Chinese buyers, but up until today, this hasn't yet been the case. In fact, as the latest Chinese reports have indicated, iron ore stockpiles at the country's major ports, continue to be in rather high levels. The only potential "game changer" at this moment could be the fact that some Chinese will be willing to take advantage of the low iron ore prices and stockpile more raw material.

As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry's main benchmark has remained virtually unchanged, as was the case in yesterday's session, which saw the index stable at 875 points. The Baltic Capesize Index was down by 54 points to 1,775 points yesterday, as a result of lower demand for Capesizes, which are mainly used to haul iron ore and coal to China. By constrast, the Panamax market, which has been suffering in the past month or so, managed to stage a rise, with the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) rising by 72 points to 784. Smaller dry bulk carriers remained steady yesterday.

According to the latest report from shipbroker Fearnleys, commenting on the Capesize markets this week, it said that "hikes in this segment have proved to be short-lived this year, and the past week seems to fit well into the pattern. Spot, period and paper levels are all sliding on lower fronthaul activity combined with increased Chinese tonnage supply following holidays. After peaking at a 9-months´ high of close to USD 11300, average daily return has so far come off some 13% in 3 days.

handful of proactive owners have made good use of the pre-peak sentiment and secured period coverage before levels again dropped substantially - notable fixtures include 180k dwt/blt 2010 delivering China prompt for 10-14 months at USD 12k and 170k dwt/blt 1999 done for 5-7 months at USD 10750 with same delivery. More spikes are expected during Q4, but fundamentals do not indicate neither long-lasting nor dramatic improvements" Fearnleys said.

On the Panamax front, the shipbroker's report added that "we have now experienced several weeks of downward pointing curves in both hemispheres, but this week we finally experienced some positiveness. Since last week rates has firmed for all trades. Atlantic round market which has hovered around USD 500 daily has now climbed to a level of around USD 5-6k depending on delivery. The fronthauls with delivery Continent are today being fixed in region of USD 18k compared to the 12k being achieved last week. We see more coal cargos in the Atlantic and fresh grain cargos fuelling the increasing market. In the Pacific we see rounds being fixed at around USD 6-6.5k + a ballast bonus. The period market has also experienced some increase in rates much supported by the FFA values also increasing" the report mentioned.

Finally, in the Handy market front, Fearnleys said that "the Atlantic market remains quiet due to lack of cargoes and more supply of ships. Rates from Continent to East Med were around USD 14k and Black Sea to FEast about USD 15k. USG-Skaw-Passero rates are around USD 11k and rates for USG-FEast about USD 18k. The Pacific market remained stable with rates mostly unchanged. For Indo-India, large eco Supra now fixed at USD 10k for dely Singapore. Nopac also fixed bss APS at USD 8k + BB 325k. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 5k and ECI-China around USD 4k. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 8k + BB USD 200k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates around USD 9k for large Supra" it concluded.

Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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