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Wednesday, 03 October 12
BARCLAYS'S PRICE FORECAST FOR NEWCASTLE COAL HAS BEEN WRITTEN DOWN
 “ The main story in the global coal markets has been the growth in supply, with all of the major exporters adding volumes into a market which we forecast will grow by 10.5% y/y in 2012. The US has been the leader, with exports increasing by 58% (up by 9 Mt) in H1 12, effectively exporting some of the energy surplus it had built up owing to a rise in shale gas extraction,” according to Barclays's Coal and freight quarterly report, that released last week.
The strong supply side has stimulated demand, with European takes up by some 7 Mt in the first four months as both the UK and Spain saw coal plant aggressively pushing out gas plant from the merit-orders. 2012 looks like it will be a high point for coal imports as environmental legislation should bring back some gas demand in 2013 and 2014, said Barclays's commodities researchers Trevor Sikorski, Miswin Mahesh & Sijin Cheng , in their latest market research report.
The Barclays’s report further pin pointed that, in the Pacific Basin, demand growth focused on China, which saw imports rise by 29% y/y, despite both very healthy additions to domestic production and a marked slowing of growth rates. The result of such high imports against a relatively modest demand background was eventually heavy pressure on Chinese domestic prices, a big build in inventories, and periods where additional imports have been turned away on contract default.
Barclays further said in its analysis report, global steam coal markets have softened since the start of the year (by around 18%). However, Barclays noted that over the last few months European delivered coal has been broadly stable at around 90 $/t. At this level, prices are now hovering around the marginal costs of the highest-cost exporters (Russia and the US) in the Atlantic Basin, and there are reports (McCloskey) that a number of Indonesian producers are starting to curtail production. While this is likely to limit potential downside, the inventory builds and modest Pacific demand side suggest limited upside, barring a significant weather or supply-side event.
Barclays revised its price outlook for CIF ARA forecasts and FOB Richards Bay prices by 1-3%.
Barclays’s price forecast for Newcastle coal has also been written down the most to average 96 $/t in 2012 (down 8.5% from their previous forecast of 105 $/t) and 94 $/t in 2013 (down 13% from 108 $/t), reflecting the impact of a slowdown in Chinese growth and the China’s current healthy inventories of coal.
Last week an Indonesian securites, Bahana Securities forecasted 2013 coal prices at USD 85 / ton, around US$ 12.00 or 12.37 percent below its 2012 price forecasts. Bahana believes upside potential on coal price remains limited due to weak coal demand. Hence, Bahana maintains its 2012 average coal benchmark price at USD 97/ton, and forecasted prices for 2013 far lesser than 2012 price.
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Monday, 19 November 12
GOVT PREPARES TO FACE ANOTHER SUIT ON MINING LAW - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is gearing up to face a complaint on the 2009 Mining Law prepared by the same organization that previously brought down upstream oil ...
Monday, 19 November 12
IHS MCCLOSKEY ASIA PACIFIC COAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE 2012
With the current global oversupply of thermal coal showing no signs of abating and spot prices falling to a two-year low, concerns are growing that ...
Sunday, 18 November 12
INDONESIAN SUB BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS FOR JANUARY 2013 DELIVERY GAINS 1.29 PERCENT WOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for January 2013 delivery gains 1.29 percent WoW and 0.25 percent DoD on Friday, 16 Novembe ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
THE SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week market sentiments ended positive with all the segments ending higher except for handy size which was almost at same levels ...
Saturday, 17 November 12
RECORD DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SEEKS TO CURB TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
This year will prove to be another record-breaker in terms of scrapping of older vessels across all shipping segments, as the equally feverish pace ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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