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Friday, 14 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKS TOWARDS CHINA FOR SOME POSITIVE NEWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the dry bulk market freight rates submerged underwater for a large part of the year, dry bulk owners are looking for some positive enhancement from the Chinese market, as the country's economy has entered a controlled slowdown. The major issue though seems to be the current state of the Chinese steel industry, which has been for years, perhaps the biggest contributor to the dry bulk market's fortunes, as it remains not only the biggest worldwide, but also the single most important buyer of iron ore, the mineral which is transported through dry bulk vessels.

According to the latest weekly report from Intermodal, China has been sending out mixed signals. The shipbroker noted that Chinese steel producers will suffer even bigger losses” following a 1.9bn yuan ($299mil) loss last month due to falling prices according to recent statements of a senior official on the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Shanghai steel rebar futures hit a record low of 3,327RMB per ton, reflecting weakening demand from China by 24% in August alone. This brings the metal's price decline y-o-y to 36%, while expectations maintain their negative outlook. According to numerous reports, iron ore stocks are piling up all across Chinese ports as Chinese steel mills remain cautious and refuse to raise inventories during such turbulent times. This situation has further suppressed iron ore prices and confirmed the voiced concerns over the growth appetite of Chinese demand.

Intermodal's George Dermatis said that "Zhang Ping, minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently said that the government will continue an active financial policy and prudent monetary policy for the rest of the year. Speculative demand and investment demand have been effectively suppressed due to government control policies –primarily targeted- on the real estate market. Chinese imports fell in August (2.6% y-o-y) while exports grew less (just 2.7%) than expected in the latest sign of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. Weakening trade figures are a major and growing concern for China, where export-oriented industries employ an estimated 200m people and the economy is already expected to expand at its slowest rate in 13 years. The reasons for the slowdown whilst heavily justified by the financial crisis on a worldwide scale and the need for deflationary pressures on the Chinese internal economy are widely questioned by business circles. He added that " last Friday, China stocks posted the biggest single-day rally in almost eight months and recovered last month's losses in just one day after the country's top economic planner unveiled trillion-yuan stimulus plans to buoy the slowing economy. Whilst smaller than the 2008 580bn spending plan, rumours of money printing ahead (maybe false) and Draghi’s comments on ECB’s pivotal role in bond purchases have rocketed market confidence upwards. Machinery manufacturers and cement makers were the biggest beneficiaries of the government's stimulus plans targeted at railroads and highways, rising by the 10-percent daily limit. Metal and coal producers, steel companies and ship builders strengthened substantially as well. Most analysts believe Beijing must do more to stop the economic slide which may see the economy grow less than the 7.5% annual target set by the government at the start of the year. But can China beat expectations once again? Almost a month before elections, people and corporate entities are looking towards government policies to come to the rescue of their ailing industries/businesses".

According to Mr. Dermatis, China is able to beat expectations, based on its past positive track record. “Based on the efficiency of government policies which admittedly are the backbone of this "controlled" economy, we think that it is highly unlikely to miss targets despite indications to the contrary. We expect the government to take even more decisive steps in the months to come to put an end to mixed signals and give its people a clear direction for the years to come – especially after a new Premier and Chairman are in place. Hopefully this shift in political willpower will signal a –much needed- reaction to commodity and energy trades that could propel the shipping market out of its current trough. Fingers crossed” he concluded.
Source:Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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