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Tuesday, 11 September 12
CLOUDY AND POLICY RISK INDONESIAN COAL INDUSTRY
 COALspot.com - Bahana Securities in its latest coal outlook, commented on the Indonesian coal market, with economic slowdown in the four largest coal importing countries such as China, Japan, South Korea and India and prolonged European debt crisis and the flooding of coal supplies from non-traditional seaborne exporters such as Colombia and the US, the Indonesian coal sector remains very much an UNDERWEIGHT and we expect price under performance to persist going forward.
Indonesia, the world’s largest power plant coal exporter is suffering from low coal prices since 2Q 2012. Indonesian coal big scale producers are planning to cut down their forecasts on 2012 coal production to counter the low price as well as low demand. The producers are believe that, cutting down the coal production will help them to float until the world economy conditions as well as coal market condition turns in to positive direction.
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent news, " Indonesian coal miners will suffer from recent news on government's plan to raise coal royalties on Mining Business License (IUP) holders, especially for Bukit Asam, which has the largest exposure to the policy since all of its concessions are under IUPs", he said in coal outlook.
He added that, coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner in the near term as electricity demand from China, Japan, South Korea and India, which contribute to greater than 50% of 2011 seaborne coal trades are beginning to contract, analyst said.
We note that China’s 2Q12 economic growth was below the 8 percent y-y level for the first time since the global economic crisis in 2008-09 while India’s 2Q 12 GDP growth also decelerated to 5.5 percent y-y. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea 2Q 12 GDP were also weaker, experiencing growth of just 1.4 percent y-y and 2.4 percent y-y respectively, Indonesian based Bahana Securities said, in its latest outlook report.
According to Bahana, more damages are expected to come in 3Q-4Q 12 as heavy rains in China that boosted hydropower generation and brought down thermal power production. In the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19 -34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2 -5 percent y-y.
Bahana further said in its report, in the past three months, China hydropower output grew 19-34 percent y-y while on the flip side thermal power output was down by 2-5 percent y-y.
An analyst, Irwan Budiarto of Bahana further added, data showed that hydropower contributed 22 percent of total electricity generated in China in July 2012, while thermal power plant dipped below 80 percent for the first time since October 2010.
“ We understand that China coal imports are still growing strongly this year, however in our view this is not related to the fundamentals of coal demand but on decreasing international coal prices relative to domestic coal prices. Hence, as China’s domestic coal prices started to fall in July, we expect coal imports to decline moderately in 2H 12 as the difference between domestic coal prices and international coal prices narrows. We estimate coal price in 3Q-4Q 12 to be stable at current levels, moving in the range of USD 85-90/ton due to lack of catalysts, bringing average coal price in line with our full-year coal price forecast to USD 97/ton, Bahana noted.
The energy analysts are expecting that, the coal market will turn in to right direction around end of 1H 2013.
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Saturday, 08 September 12
RIO TINTO COMPLETES ACQUISITION OF BHP BILLITON'S INTERESTS IN RICHARDS BAY MINERALS
Rio Tinto has doubled its holding in Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) following the completion of its acquisition of BHP Billiton’s entire inte ...
Friday, 07 September 12
HBA GAINS $ 1.56 PER MT IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal reference price has gained US$ 1.56 per MT M-o-M. This is the first gain ...
Thursday, 06 September 12
SOME ANCHORED PANAMAX VESSELS WAITING FOR CARGOS TO COME
Handy
According to Fearnleys weekly report, in the smaller segments Fearnleys sees little to no changes since last week. There are still entering s ...
Thursday, 06 September 12
DRY BULK CARRIERS STILL IN HIGH DEMAND AMONG SHIP OWNERS, BUT NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY SLIDES IN AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The slide of the dry bulk market this year hasn't abated ship owners' appetite for dry bulk carriers, as evidenced by the steady interest expresse ...
Tuesday, 04 September 12
SHIP OWNERS' COMPETITION LEADS TO TANKER FIXTURES BELOW OPERATING COSTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners operating in the VLCC tanker markets are increasingly finding it difficult to obtain even breakeven rates for their vessels, as competit ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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