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Thursday, 30 August 12
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LOOKING OUT FOR BETTER DAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With things in China moving slowly this week, as a result of holidays, it’s no surprise that the latest positive trend in the dry bulk market was put on hold. Yesterday, the BID (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark was down by 6 points to 718 points, with the Panamax market facing the most downward pressure. The relative index (BPI) was down by 24 points to 788, while almost any other ship market was also on the downside, with the exception of the Supramax one, which was practically unchanged. The main gainer from last week’s rally, the Capesize market, was down by 5 points and still unable to bring itself to any meaningful recovery.

In its latest weekly report, Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market, that a week-on-week improvement in daily earnings of more than 20% would under normal circumstances be remarkable, but when basis is around usd 2700 it hardly raises eyebrows. The last few days have seen a micro-rally caused by Australian miners paying up to replace tonnage delayed by bad weather, and a certain optimism has been evident also for the Brazil/China iron ore trade on speculations that chinese mills will take advantage of falling iron ore prices. Fundamentals generally remain unchanged, however, and present spot average value of usd 3300/day still covers less than half of daily running costs. Despite this, majors keep picking short period tonnage, although at ever lower levels - recently exemplified by 177000 dwt/built 2007 delivering china prompt for 4-7 months at usd 8k/day said the shipbroker.

In a separate report, shipbroker Shiptrade & Services noted on the Capesize front, that «the downwards trend continued at the beginning of the week although slightly improved at the middle-end of the week with the BCI closing at 1124 increased by 29 points and the 4 TC routes ending up at USD 2,927. In the Atlantic basin, rates remained steady at low levels with the fronthaul trips ending up at USD 18,500, same levels as last week, while the transantlantic round trips fixed at USD 2,750 reporting a modest increase of USD 250. The same sentiment applied in the pacific market with the Australian iron ore trade producing cargoes, but not enough in order to cover the oversupply of tonnage at the area. In this respect, round trips fixed at USD 3,750. Period activity fixed around at USD 9,000 levels for one year it said.

Meanwhile, in the Panamax market, Fearnleys noted that bank Holiday in London on Monday did not help the already bearish sentiment in the Panamax market. It was an extremely quiet start to the week and rates are continuing to slip in both hemispheres. We see the commodity imports to China slowing further and experienced several cargoes failing subjects due to not closing the sale it self. Mid week we see some more cgos in the Atlantic but the number of vsls are still outnumbering the cargoes. Tarvs are being fixed in region of Usd 5k while Fhauls are being fixed at around Usd 15/16k with Cont delivery. In the Pacific rounds are being fixed at ard the same levels as in the Atlantic ie 5k. The period market is non excisting with levels that can be achieved are too low for owners to even consider it said in its report.

Concluding its weekly analysis, Fearnleys said on the Handy markets that «the Supra market continued its negative trend with little fresh business entering the market. Continent positions fixed around USD 4k for trips to US Gulf, and USD 17500-ish for east redel. The US Gulf market kept more stable and fixed in line with last week, at low USD 11k towards Continent.

Pacific market remained quiet due to lot of ships available. For Indo-India, large eco Supra now fixed at USD 7k for dely Singapore. Nopac also fixed bss APS at USD 7k + BB USD 250k. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 7k and ECI-China around USD 5k. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 7k + BB USD 250k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates around USD 9k for large Supra it stated.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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