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Monday, 13 August 12
ACTIVE DRY BULK FLEET INCREASES BY 8% SO FAR IN 2012 IN TERMS OF TONNAGE CAPACITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 It’s no wonder that the dry bulk market has been tethering since the start of the year. the overflow of tonnage has been so enormous, that even China in its best of years, wouldn’t be able to keep up with the current supply dynamics. In fact, analysts have mentioned that it would take for a couple of more “Chinas” nowadays, in order for demand to catch up with the current fleet of dry bulk carriers. As of the start of the year, the global outstanding orderbook for dry bulk vessels stood at 2,375 ships, with a potential carrying capacity of approximately 200 million dwt tons. According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Intermodal, out of the alarmingly large total of these orders, 1,677 ships of 139 million dwt were scheduled to be delivered during 2012. Under this scenario approximately 70% of the bulker orderbook was scheduled to be delivered during 2012.
With 7 months already gone by and as of 1st of Aug 2012, it is interesting to see the progress. According to Intermodal’s John Cotzias, “the active bulker fleet stands at 8,477 ships and 645mil tons of carrying capacity. During 2012 the active bulker fleet has grown by 6% in ships and 8% in total dwt. VLOC’s in 2012 have grown by 17%, Capesize 4%, Post Panamax 14%, Panamax 6%, Supramax 12%, Handymax reduced by -5% while Handysize increased by only 2%.
At the same time, Newbuilding bulker deliveries are holding strong with around 4 new ships being delivered every day (809 ships of 70mil tons dwt)!! It is worth noting that slippage (expected deliveries less actual deliveries ) was calculated at abt. 15% for the 1st Half of 2012 while it is accelerating after June, giving us a present figure of around 17%. There were 1,677 ships deliveries originally scheduled for 2012, so we could assume that if the current trend continued, there would be 1,390 ships delivered in 2012. However as the slippage rate increases and traditionally as we move towards Nov-Dec more ships are belated to take advantage of a later year of built, so we may expect that the total dry bulker deliveries for 2012 will reach a record high number of around 1,250 ships and abt. 108mil tons of extra dwt carrying capacity. Slippage therefore is estimated to reach around 23-25% for the current year” he said.
According to Intermodal, “looking into deliveries of specific bulker size segments in 2012, we have recorded 49 VLOC’s, 91 Capes, 73 Post Panamax, 168 Panamax, 226 Supramax, 13 Handymax and 189 Handysize being delivered. In 2013 the world bulker fleet will have a capacity of about 750mil tons and this is a reality that we all have to face…!” the report stated.
According to Mr. Cotzias, “there is just too much supply of tonnage that will only push further the gap between available ships for trading and available cargoes. Fleet growth for 2012 is estimated at 20%, and this increase can never be matched by seaborne dry cargo growth which may run at a mere 4-6% given best world economic conditions.
Scrapping has aided the bulker sector tremendously, as more than 21mil tons of dwt, abt 340 ships have been removed from the active fleet, this gives us around 1.6 dry bulker ships scrapped per day! Average age of the ships scrapped is now coming down to 21 years. Offered scrap prices looked rather attractive during first half of 2012 and that further assisted most owners in deciding to send more vessels to the breakers rather than seek buyers for further trading. According to our estimates abt. 500 ships of 30-31mil tons of dwt will be taken for demo during 2012 and this is approximately 6% of the active fleet. Let’s keep this scrapping going!” he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 11 July 12
HBA DROPPED SHARPLY IN JULY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since September 2010 in July 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this mon ...
Wednesday, 11 July 12
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST $ 1.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit FOB Indonesia Coal decline for a second day yesterday, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps. The prices for shipments to ...
Tuesday, 10 July 12
DRY BULK MARKET RECORDS MODEST GAINS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher on Monday, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ending the session up by 5 points to 1,162. Most markets were hig ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
INDONESIA-JAPAN RELATIONS TURN SOUR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, the one of the leading Indonesian English new papers reported that, Bilateral relations between Indonesia and Japan have recently ...
Saturday, 07 July 12
EXCESS SUPPLY & WEAK DEMAND KEEP COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps for August and Q4 deliveries slipped slightly this week. SGX’s Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swap ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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