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Tuesday, 19 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIFT UP MARKET, PANAMAXES SET TO FALL SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Another rise for the dry bulk market was evident yesterday, as the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) was up for a ninth straight session to 938 points, rising by 14 points. The rise was once again triggered by the smaller ship types, with the Panamax market rising by 16 points, or 1.5% to 1,081 points, with average daily earnings rising to $8,592. By contrast, the Capesize market was once again falling, with the relative index falling by 10 points to 1,138 points, as a result of tumbling iron ore demand. As a result average daily earnings dropping at just $3,377, a multi-year low.
In a relative note, analyst Commodore Research predicted a new fall of the market, which will most likely impact Panamaxes the most. Commodore mentioned that “it might be hard for some to believe, but at the start of the year capesize rates were averaging $23,991/day. Capesize rates quickly came under intense vessel supply-related pressure, however, and have remained below $10,000/day since January 12th. More recently, rates have come under additional pressure due to the ongoing lull in Chinese iron ore demand. While near-term prospects for capesize rates remain bleak - first and foremost due to the tremendous amount of capesize vessels that will remain available in the market - a strong case can be made that future prospects for panamax rates are considerably worse” said Commodore.
It concluded by mentioning that “for the second half of this year, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 355 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 145 vessels. The 2013 panamax orderbook dwarfs the 2013 capesize orderbook as well. For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at roughly 240 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at roughly 90 vessels. In 2013, the panamax market is poised to become the most oversupplied of all of the dry bulk vessel classes. The 595 panamax vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2013 represent a growth of approximately 28% on the current panamax fleet. The 235 capesize vessels expected to be delivered represent a growth of approximately 16% on the current capesize fleet. While the story for 2012 will likely remain the depressed capesize market, panamax rates are likely to feel great pain in 2013” said Commodore.
In an earlier note, BIMCO had noted that “the dry bulk market is under immense pressure, as the retreating weight of China as the driver of the market is extensively felt. At a time when supply growth simply breaks new mind-blowing delivery records, the demand situation is pitching in a bit too. Currently, there are reports of Chinese customers in the steel industry that are refusing to honour their contract as prices drop, and stock piles are fuller than normal at a time when steel mills take their foot off the throttle following a red-hot production period in recent months. Current fundamental demand/consumption is not strong enough to support such a high production level. As the world awaits the next anticipated Chinese stimulus package to lift demand, the dry bulk market is scouting for another saviour to get it through the day. Crude steel production in China surpassed 60 million tons a month in both March and April. The monthly average in 2011 was 57 million per month” said BIMCO.
It added that “the first five months average earnings of a Capesize bulker ended at USD 7,013 per day. This is down by 13% as compared to the same period last year that earned USD 8,060 per day. The time charter average has only been above USD 10,000 per day in the first 11 days of the year. The brief strengthening of freight rates in the midst of May unfortunately proved to be short-lived. As suggested two months ago, the downward overshooting of rates was corrected upwards with stronger rates during April and the first half of May, but as the optimism in the macroeconomic picture also began to fade, so did the freight market.
China imports more coal when the price gap between Chinese thermal coal (less a heat discount) and imported thermal coal is providing an arbitrage opportunity (including freight costs). When e.g. Australian or Indonesian coal prices become relatively cheaper, Chinese buyers are interested in importing more coal from Australia, which is good news for ship owners. In 2011 the price gap widened substantially, leading to hitherto unseen levels of thermal coal imports to China. If the price of Australian and Indonesian coal drops below the price of Chinese coal, as has been the case the last few months, we might see Chinese imports get back strongly when coal demand peaks in July. This could make 2012 imports surpass those record volumes of 2011” BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 11 June 12
BAHANA FORECASTS THE COAL PRICES WILL FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com - Growing US coal supplies + low shipping costs = Asia as target.
According to Irwan Budiarto analyst at Bahana Securities, US ...
Monday, 11 June 12
ASIAN COAL TRADING COMMUNITY EMBRACES API 5 AND API 8
Press Release - The Asian coal trading community is embracing the API 5 and API 8 indexes for its swap contracts.
The API 5 index represents 5,50 ...
Sunday, 10 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR NEXT FEW WEEKS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall this week and down by 2.99 pct closing at 877 points.
The Cape index also was down by 5.78 pct closing a ...
Friday, 08 June 12
ESSAR ENERGY RECEIVES FINAL APPROVAL FOR INDONESIAN COAL BLOCK
COALspot.com - Essar Energy plc, the India-focused integrated energy company, today announced that it has received final ‘Pinjam Pakai’ ...
Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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