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Thursday, 14 June 12
SMALLER DRY BULK CARRIERS LIKELY TO FACE MORE CHALLENGES; DEMOLITION ACTIVITY SET FOR RECORD YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest update on the dry bulk markets, BIMCO said that China is partly “failing to deliver” on raw material imports that can affect the market balance. Volumes are strong,but growth is slow and easily outpaced by supply growth. While the recent downturn has been hardest on the Panamax and Capesize segments, the smaller vessel sizes are unlikely to stay immune as the market tumbles. “To sum up our forecast for the coming 6 weeks, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average rates will remain at depressed levels but move slowly up from current very low levels but are not expected to exceed USD 10,000 per day. Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 5,000-9,000 per day interval. For the smaller segments, BIMCO forecasts that the Supramax freight rates are likely to stay at the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates, moving sideways and less erratic, are set to stay at the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day” said BIMCO.
Meanwhile, it notes that the demolition market sentiment is weak right now across the board of the four main breaker nations of Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and China. As May went by, a combination of factors such as falling steel prices, a historically low Indian Rupee against the US Dollar and pretty full scrap yards following the buying spree in first four months, resulted in a quick lowering of the demolition price (USD per ldt) offers from buyers to the tune of 10% over a couple of months. This development has prompted several owners to withdraw scrap candidates from the market as they became unimpressed by the offered rates. At the end of May USD 435 per ldt was offered for General cargo and USD 455 per ldt for tankers. The Indian Rupee was trading at 56.09 to the US Dollar at the end of May, compared with 52.64 a month earlier.
“This may convert the recent rush to the breakers that has taken out dry bulk tonnage almost at record quarterly levels in Q1-2012, but has also taken lots of over-aged containerships and tankers out of the market. During the first quarter 142 vessels of 7.85 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet; this is second only to Q2-2011, where 127 vessels of 8.74 million DWT left the dry bulk fleet according to CRSL data. In spite of the weak sentiment in the demolition market that is likely to slow down activity in the coming months, BIMCO is adjusting its demolition outlook slightly up from 20 million DWT for 2012 as a whole to 25 million DWT. This adjusted outlook comes on the back of an extended poor freight market, a market that appears hard to escape” said BIMCO’s analysis.
TONNAGE SUPPLY
In terms of supply, the report states that “following the largest single months of newbuilt deliveries ever in January 2012, the pace of deliveries has fortunately slowed down closer to 2011 levels. During the past year, deliveries of Handysize vessels have accounted for roughly 10% of added capacity. This stability is mirrored across the dry bulk segment over the past year. However, most recently we have seen some fluctuations in Capesize capacity added to the fleet, increasing from 41% in January to 54% in April. While Handymax and Panamax hold steady at 20% and 25% respectively as a proportion of the dry bulk fleet, Handysize is likely to diminish from current level at 13%, while Capesize is likely to expand as a proportion of the entire fleet. 45% of all new deliveries in the past year were Capesize vessels and the current proportion stands at 41%.
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk remained larger than expected during April and May, continuing the frantic delivery pace of Q1. During the first 5 months, as much as 47 million DWT set a new World Record, beating the old one from 2011. The frantic pace has put 2012 on course to possibly surpass the 2011 total delivery of 98 million DWT. The upbeat pace is a result of lower than expected delay and slippage. As this new trend appears to be sticky, it has been taken into account and subsequently lifted our delivery estimates for 2012 to 101 million DWT. So far, the active fleet has grown by 5.4% in 2012 as 127 Handysizes, 140 Handymaxes, 162 Panamaxes and 115 Capesize vessels were delivered. Weighing against this massive inflow is strong demolition pace which has accounted for the removal of 13.5 million DWT so far. Recently, demolition prices have decreased somewhat. This may result in a slower demolition pace going forward” mentioned BIMCO.
It concluded on the supply side of the market, by stating that “in the previous report two months ago we provided short-term projections that the Handysize newbuilding prices could be heading further South before firming a bit again. Our estimates were for 32 k-35 k to hit USD 20 million. During May, orders for six 39.5 k Handysize vessels were signed at USD 22.3 million apiece. The vessels were even reported to be highly sophisticated, fuel efficient and built in China. The above-mentioned Handysize orders were amongst the 113 dry bulk orders in total placed during the first five months. This slowdown in ordering is surely a sign of very poor market conditions and a souring of future prospects as the oversupply simply gets worse by the day, as can be seen from the bullish delivery pace. During the first five months of 2011, 253 orders were placed; this translated into an ordering slowdown of 55% in 2012” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 July 12
SHIP PRICES HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY THIS YEAR, FAVORING INVESTORS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The price for a 5 year old Capesize dry bulk carrier of 172,000 dwt has fallen to about $33,4mil from $42.9 at the end of June 2011, while at end of ...
Saturday, 14 July 12
FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO BE QUITE VOLATILE - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seems to be quite volatile with the trend changing almost every week. This week all the segments were down except for Pana ...
Friday, 13 July 12
TRANSCOAL MINERGY HAS RECEIVED PMA STATUS IN INDONESIA
COALspot.com - PT Transcoal Minergy (“TCM”) has received official foreign owned company status from the Capital Investment Coordinating ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
LACK OF CAPESIZE DEMAND DRAGS DRY BULK MARKET LOWER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A lack of demand for the larger Capesize dry bulk carriers had as a result the fall of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), w ...
Thursday, 12 July 12
RIO TINTO'S SENIOR MANAGEMENT CHANGES
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto is making changes to its senior management team as chief financial officer (CFO) Guy Elliott has decided to retire at the e ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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