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Wednesday, 13 June 12
LOW COAL PRICES COULD CHANGE SUPPLY SIDE DYNAMICS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that the weakness seen in thermal coal prices in recent months should reverse once demand from major importers recovers, although there is a risk low prices may persist into 2013, changing the industry's supply side dynamics.
The price of thermal coal (5,500 kcal coal at Newcastle Australia on a free-on-board basis) reached a two-year low of USD87 per metric ton in early June 2012, down from USD142/mt in January 2011. Major reasons for this decline include China's economic slowdown and high coal inventory levels, increased production and exports from Indonesia and Australia, and increased exports by US coal producers due to cheap natural gas displacing coal used in US power generation.
Fitch believes that prices can recover from current lows once demand from key importers - China and India - improves, and the supply side adjusts to reflect the price environment. India depends on coal as its major energy source and is increasingly relying on imported coal as it struggles to increase domestic production. Likewise in China, thermal coal fired power represents more than 70% of the country's energy needs; Fitch believes thermal coal demand from China will lift again post sufficient policy easing by the government, and continue rising over the medium-to-long term in line with the country's strong GDP growth outlook, albeit lower than previous years.
The weak pricing environment is exposing the business risks of high-cost coal producers, as coal prices fall near or below the marginal cost of production. Many Australian producers have high cash costs of production; such operators will be significantly affected if prices remain low for an extended period. At the same time, sustained low coal prices can shift buyers from low-rank coal to higher-grade coals and thus negatively affect both demand and realized prices for low-rank coal.
Fitch notes that many large coal producers have contracts in place with both volumes and prices fixed, typically for a period of one year; such contracts can account for a meaningful share of their total revenues - for example around 65% for Adaro Indonesia ('BB+'/Stable) and around 45% PT Indika Energy ('B+'/Positive). These operators would be insulated from a temporary weakening of coal prices to some extent. However, should low prices persist through 2012 and into 2013, it will negatively affect the prices they negotiate for 2013; such negotiations typically take place in Q4 and Q1 of each calendar year.
Should the current low price environment persist into 2013, Fitch expects high-cost producers in Australia and the US to undertake production cuts, and review expansion projects under consideration. Fitch also believes that production expansion plans by low-cost producing countries like Indonesia may be curtailed. Such actions would limit coal production levels (or growth) and help address oversupply.
In rating companies producing commodities, like coal, Fitch takes a through-the-cycle approach to its ratings; this factors in a reasonable level of rating headroom to accommodate weakening of coal prices. Cash cost of production and cash margins over an industry cycle are given a heavy emphasis and factored into the ratings. Hence, Fitch does not expect any immediate negative rating actions on its rated coal producers in the Asia-Pacific region.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 20 April 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.6 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2012
COALspot.com - BUMA has removed 28.0 million bcm (+6.4% YoY) of overburden in March 2012 while coal production was at 2.6 million tons (+1.3% YoY).
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Thursday, 19 April 12
FRESH COAL SALES FROM JATENERGYS JONGKANG MINES
COALspot.com - Energy company Jatenergy Ltd (ASX code JAT) announced today that it had signed a contract for an 11,000 tonne coal sale due for shipm ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
HANDY - 'POSITIVE TREND', PANAMAX - 'A FIRMER TENDENCY', CAPESIZE - 'AGAIN NEGATIVE'
Handy
The positive trend from last week continued, with more cargoes entering the market. Skaw/Passero del fixed tick above USD 4000 for US Gulf di ...
Thursday, 19 April 12
WILLIS MARINE MARKET REVIEW FORECASTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT YEAR - WILLIS GLOBAL MARINE / HELLENIC SHIPPING
After an inauspicious start, 2012 could well be "another difficult and uncertain year for the maritime industry faced with the aftermath of the ...
Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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