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Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and ship owners will be looking for a new direction today, with the index remaining virtually unchanged during the course of the past week. The BDI was up by 0.1% last week, with the Capesize Index up by 5.1%. these gains were offset by the fall of the Panamax Index (down by 2.1%), while the smaller ship types were also on a high last week, rising by 1.5% (Supramax) and by 2.2% (Handysize) respectively.

According to an analysis from Tainted Alpha, iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and prices were mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged. In a separate weekly report, Paris-based shipbroker Barry Rogliano Salles, mentioned that it was a more positive week for the Capes, with Atlantic rates showing significant gains, compared to a largely flat market for the Pacific. The Atlantic round was quoted as high as $6,000 per day, a significant increase on the previous week. With coal prices falling, there was momentum going into the current week. Overall the Cape 4TC closed up 11% at $7,850. In the paper market, conditions picked up mid week as sentiment improved in the physical market, and large volumes were recorded Thursday and Friday. Week-on-week saw June, Q3 and Cal13 gain $1,550, $1,100 and $420, with Q3 closing at $12,358” said the shipbroker.

On the panamax front, it noted that “this week was definitely a period in which to consider the fundamental trends and performance of the market, with the previous week not showing the reality of the long term trend. This week the 4TC dropped $1,683 from $13,876 to $12,719, mainly influenced by the Atlantic market. Rates dropped on the front haul, which fell $2,707 to $20,543, and there was a slightly smaller drop on the transatlantic, which fell from $17,088 to $15,088 i.e. $2,000 in one week. The main reasons are the slowdown in east coast south America and US Gulf grain activity, combined with the still undetermined numbers of ships coming from India and the Far East and heading for the Atlantic. The P3A and P4A routes decreased as well from $12,207 to $10,775, and from $2,962 to $2,369 respectively. In the Pacific the plunge was slightly less than in the Atlantic, due mainly to the clearer picture concerning the number of open vessels. The short period market remains at the same levels i.e $11,500 giving a “little hope” of correction in the short term” it mentioned.


In a recent research, Danish Ship Finance, mentioned that Chinese importers are increasingly diversifying their sources of commodities. This has led to heavy investments in production facilities and infrastructure all over the world, especially in other developing countries. These investments have helped to increase the share of Chinese imports originating from other developing countries. Latin America and the Caribbean saw 15% growth in their exports to China. Africa has also benefitted from the Chinese quest for raw materials. African exports to China were up by 15% in 2011, mainly driven by exports from counties in southern and western Africa. Russian and Ukrainian exports helped to pull 13% growth in European exports to China” it noted.

It also added that “the fact that a larger share of iron ore to Asia was supplied by Brazil meant that iron ore imports on average were carried over longer distances. On the other hand, coal trading from Indonesia to India was the main driver of coal trades in 2011. This meant that coal on average travelled shorter distances in 2011. Taking changes in trade patterns into account, the average trading distances increased in 2011. Distance-adjusted front-haul demand grew 8% in 2011 compared to 10% in 2010. China led the distance-adjusted front-haul demand growth with an increase of 11% in 2011. European and Japanese distance-adjusted front-haul demand increased only 5% in 2011” concluded Danish Ship Finance.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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