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Thursday, 03 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS INACTIVE, POSTING MILD DECREASE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market has kept retreating this week, although at a very low pace, on the back of a lull in demand. The industry's benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended yesterday down by 0.26% to 1,152 points, but still 24,5% higher than the previous month, on the back of the recent recovery. The latter was fuelled by the Panamax segment and the start of the grain season in Latin America, which helped the dry bulk market retrieve most of the part lost since the start of the year, when the market experienced a near record collapse, as a result of too many new ships entering the global fleet. Yesterday, the Capesize market was practically unchanged to 1,495 points, up by 1 point on the day. The same applied to the Supramax, as well as the Handysize segments, which were also up by just 1 point to 1,099 and 601 respectively. The only losing part of the market was the Panamax with a fall of 20 points to 1,693 points.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market by mentioning that " the Cape market has continued to be depressed. The Pacific is weaker and rates from Western Australia have fallen to USD 7.40 from about USD 7.60 + last week. The front haul market has also fallen to about USD 20.70. The only bright spot is the US coal that has become competitive in the Chinese market and several sales have been concluded with tonnage ballasting from the Far East. This is due to the continued lack of tonnage in the Atlantic, with the few ships that are open preferring to continue to trade within the Atlantic. Short period has also been quiet with only a couple of fixtures done at a suggested level of USD 12k per day, which is still a significant premium to the spot market" said Fearnleys in its report.

Meanwhile, on the Panamax market, it mentioned that " the Panamax market has experienced a major upturn the last couple of weeks. This trend has now stopped, and it might only be short lived correction until rates will keep on firming. The trend has been driven mainly by coal cargos with India and China being the 2 major buyers of same. We believe this will continue for a while as the prices for US coal are historically low for the Chinese. India announced that they would need to import about 15 million mt more coal, and this will again tie up tonnage and make the Atlantic more tight. Tarvs are now fixing around USD 16k while the Fhauls are being concluded at a strong 22/23k per day. In the Pacific, rounds are being fixed at around USD 11-11.5k. The short period market has seen some deals being concluded at around 11.5/11.8k for Pacific delivery" said the report.

Finally, on the Handy markets, Fearnleys noted that "stable demand in the Atlantic offered good rates for the tonnage. USG/Cont was worth USD 17500 and more. Baltic and Black Sea appeared to be nice places as well and paid FE destinations in excess of USD 18k/day for Black Sea/Aden able vessels and over USD 16k daily for Baltic carriers. Short period in the Atlantic stayed almost unchanged at USD 15/16k levels. Pacific market has softened due to on-going holidays and extended weekend in FEast. For Indo-India, large eco Supra can fetch close to USD 8k bss N.China. Nickel ore cargoes are seen fixed at USD 10k dely N.China.

Nopac also fixed around USD 9k dop Japan. Indian iron ore market remains quiet with less activity on WCI & ECI. WCI-China rates around USD 11k and ECI-China around USD 7k. Some ECI Supras have been ballasting to pick up Indo cargoes as well. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 11k + BB USD 350k. Red Sea fertilisers to India are fixed high teens. Not much activity on short period and rates around USD 12k for large Supra" it concluded.

In terms of newbuilding business reported, it's worth noting that 8 firm ships reported this week, 6 of them LPG carriers. "There seems to be a positive consensus in the relative quite sector of LPG newbuildings. Pricewise, it seems the market is moving sideways with no big surprises. Although yards are searching high and low for new business, they remain steady at current price levels" stated Fearnleys.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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