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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS SURGING, CAPESIZES FALLING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what seems to be an establishing pattern, the dry bulk market has kept its upward momentum, edging closer to the 900 point-mark, but the larger s ...
Wednesday, 21 March 12
BUMA HAS PRODUCED 2.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FEBRUARY 2012
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur's overburden removal in February 2012 has reached totaled 23.8 million bcm (+2.4% YoY) while coal production ...
Tuesday, 20 March 12
SMALLER DRY BULK VESSELS STILL LEADING DRY BULK MARKET TO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been growing during the past couple of weeks, but contrary to the usual practice, it’s not the larger Capesizes which ...
Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the ...
Sunday, 18 March 12
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT IN 2011 ROSE 54% TO US$ 339.56 MILLION
COALspot.com - Company revenue for the period January - December 2011 amounting to Rp 10.6 trillion (approximately US$ 1,164,835,164.84) recorded an ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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