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Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. This represents a close-to-record level that is only challenged by the deliveries during Q1-2011 where 24.4 million were delivered says BIMCO in an analysis of the dry bulk market. “This development has prompted an upward adjustment to our supply growth forecast for 2012 that now reads 11.4% y-o-y. So far, the active fleet has grown by 2.9% in 2012 as 288 vessels have been delivered, offset by 6.9 million DWT being demolished. The growth in the Handysize segment included 63 vessels of 2.2 million DWT – making the sub-segment grow by 3.2% during the first quarter of 2012. Meanwhile, the Capesize fleet absorbed another 10.5 million DWT, causing the fleet to grow by 4.3% since 1 January.
On the contracting side, things have calmed down significantly. Since the beginning of 2011, newbuilding orders have been fewer and fewer. For seven months in a row, the monthly level of new orders has not exceeded 1.8 million DWT. In comparison, the monthly average of ordered tonnage during 2010 stood at 8.1 million DWT. The remaining order book stays biased towards the larger ships sizes, with the order book to active fleet ratios being the highest for Panamax (60,000-100,000 DWT) at 40.8% with the Capesize segment being runners-up at 32.2%. The corresponding ratios for Handysize and Handymax are 25.4% and 26.8%” said BIMCO in its research note.
Regarding freight rates, it noted that “Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure but improve from current very low levels, although it will not exceed USD 12,000 per day. For the smaller segments, we forecast that the Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to get closer to each other and improve, but remain in the USD 8,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates should improve and head up, staying in the interval of USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval” it said.
Demand-wise, BIMCO stated that “there is no doubt that it takes time from when commodities are bought and transportation fixed and executed to the cargo being landed at the buyer’s desired port of discharge. There’s also no doubt that buying activity for staple cargoes such as coal and iron ore was hectic during the final months of 2011. If import figures continue to stay elevated and market conditions for bulkers stay weak, we can only conclude that the oversupply glut is apparently more severe and even heavier than we expected. Weather-related disruptions could not steal the picture from the overall devastating development in dry bulk freight rates that began in the first half of December 2011 and went all the way to early February before the bleeding was stopped. Since then, we have not seen any significant rebound, but rates have firmed slowly. This was in line with our forecast made in the previous report” says the report.
BIMCO further attempted to explain why rates came down that sharply in the first couple of months. “By looking at the import figures for main commodities such as iron ore and coal into China, you will find little indication that demand has died down, but March figures may present a more complete picture. Some commodities have certainly seen a drop in demand.
In the past three months (December-February) China imported 197 million tons of iron ore – up by 12% y-o-y – and 54.8 million tons of coal, up by 36%. This special market condition was a Capesize event only. As the dawn broke on 2012, the overcapacity menace returned with a vengeance, bringing not only Capesize rates to the floor but also Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates at the same time.
When following the recent development in freight rates it is now crystal clear that the January touch-down was a sticky one. Currently, Capesize rates are still trapped in the shadows of USD 5,000 per day. The Capesize vessels that used to rule the development of freight rates have lost their position. For long periods during 2011 – and again in 2012 – rates were significantly below any other ship size. The fundamental imbalance is taking its toll. On the contrary, Supramax rates have now moved up to USD 10,000 per day, a level sufficient to cover daily running costs. This is sadly not the case for the Capesize segment generally right now. Looking back a little bit on recent history, the overall picture is similar in pattern for the various dry bulk segments, but different in levels. The limited total fleet growth in 2009 was partly due to extensive recycling of tonnage (10.1 million DWT), partly due to the rather limited introduction of new tonnage, a picture that changed completely in 2010 with the first deliveries of an exorbitant ordering spree. Despite a rather healthy demand picture during recent years, it remains a sizeable challenge to the freight markets to absorb so much tonnage. This has once again been carved in stone during the first quarter of 2012 and by seeing the very high segment growth rates for Capesize and Handymax in particular, the latter has been able to weather the storm in much calmer waters due to its more flexible nature in ports, cargoes and grab-fittings” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR NEW DIRECTION THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) the main benchmark of the dry bulk shipping industry not traded at the start of this week, traders, charterers and s ...
Monday, 07 May 12
INDONESIAN HBA FALL AGAIN IN MAY 2012
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fall again to lowest level since January 2011 in May 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales in Ma ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA SWAPS SLIGHTLY DROP THIS WEEK
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries slightly dropped this week.
According ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
S7 & S8 ROUTES LIKELY TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI remained flat this week and was up just by 1 point closing at 1,157 points.
The cape size index was up by 5.14 pct closing ...
Sunday, 06 May 12
EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL FINALLY TO BECOME EFFECTIVE NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - Mineral ore exporters of Indonesia ( only IUP holders) are required to obtain recommendation letter from the energy and mineral ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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