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Friday, 06 April 12
DRY BULK MARKET SWIFT TO HALT FALL ON RENEWED DEMAND FOR CAPESIZES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk managed to put a stop to the recent falls, which came as a result of a lacklustre demand for smaller vessel sizes. Although this trend has remained the same, the return of Chinese charterers from their three-day holidays marked a stronger demand for Capesizes yesterday, which in turn was enough to offset the lack of interest for smaller vessels and lead the market to higher ground. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 0..22% to 928 points yesterday, with Capesizes gaining 2.17% on the day and reaching 1,507 points. By contrast, the demise of the Supramax market was again evident, with the relative index losing 1.66%, while Panamaxes were also down by 0.67%.
Detailing the oversupply issues which have caused the dry bulk market to retreat to such low levels since the start of the year, Intermodal’s Theodore Ntalakos said that “the freight market and other circumstances were quite convenient for many shipowners who while acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, ordered new buildings even when it was clear that in the long-term the excessive tonnage would eventually suffocate the freight market. It is a real-life example of game theory that shows why two or more individuals might not cooperate, even if it is in their best interest to do so” said Mr. Ntalakos.
He went on to give an example to make his case. “Say we have one shipowner ( Shipowner A) and all the rest shipowners (Shipowner B). Each of their strategy is either to expand by ordering the new fuel efficient vessels or not to order and buy a vessel from the second hand market. We have four possible scenarios:
I. If Shipowner A orders and no one else does then he will get the benefit of new designs, and earn say $10, B stays behind and earns $1
II. If both A and B order then they lose the advantage and they earn very little - $2,
III. If no one orders then they earn moderately from their existing fleet - $5 each, and
IV. If shipowner A does not order but 'B' orders then 'A' will earn very little because the charterers will prefer B's ECO ships – A earns $1, B earns $10.
Here, regardless of what the other decides, each shipowner gets a higher pay-off by ordering new vessels:
I. If B does not order, the payoffs for A are $5 or $10 so he will always chose $10 i.e to order.
II. If B orders, the payoffs for A are $1 or $2 so he will always chose $2 i.e to order
The game is symmetric so Shipower B would always act the same way which means that both shipowers would order new vessels. Since both rational owners decide to order new vessels each receives a lower reward than if both were not to order!! So, rational decision-making results being worse off than if each chose not to order and accept to earn less. As the two shipowners can’t see what the others are doing and cannot play a cooperative game, they will decide to maximize their pay-off and always proceed with orders” said Mr. Ntalakos in a rather interesting undertaking.
He concluded his analysis by stating “we need however to point out that the new ECO ships especially with the current restrain on finance, will only be a small part of the total fleet and orderbook and it will take years to play a substantial part and drive the older vessels out of the market, so we expect owners who order such vessels with today's new builiding and bunker prices to have the competitive advantage for the years to come.
So, there you have it, Shipping is a non-cooperative game. Then why do pools exist? Even in pools if each member's interest to put the next (and succeeding) vessel he acquires into the pool and the demand is limited then the quality of the common is damaged for everybody. So like everything else in life one needs to find the proper equilibrium between cooperating and looking after one's self-interest” he said.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 01 July 12
DSP OF SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAP'S THIS WEEKS MOVEMENTS SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - SGX AsiaClear OTC Coal Swaps have recovered slightly this week and Q4 deliveries are also showing positive direction.
SGX’s ...
Saturday, 30 June 12
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY TO FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 2.66 pct (up by 26 points) closing at 1,004 points crossing the 1000 point barrier this week.
The c ...
Friday, 29 June 12
INDONESIAN PRODUCERS ARE PLANNING TO CUT PRODUCTION IF COAL PRICES FALL FURTHER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest multi grade coal exporter, shipped 31.54* million tons of coal in May 2012, compared to 31.86* mill ...
Friday, 29 June 12
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DOING THEIR MATHS BEFORE PLACING NEWBUILDING ORDERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
With oversupply having plagued the dry bulk shipping fleet since the end of 2011, it’s become ever so evident that placing a newbuilding order ...
Thursday, 28 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET HIGHER ON CAPESIZE OPTIMISM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market inched a bit higher yesterday, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended up by 0.71% to 988 points. Most ship types were up, with the ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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