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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 13 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The current sentiment in the dry market resembles memories from the end of 2008, when the Baltic Dry Index closed at the level of 663 points on Dece ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
INDONESIA HAS ISSUED A REGULATION TO BAN THE EXPORT OF UNPROCESSED MINERALS AND METALS BY 2014
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has finally issued a ministerial decree (7 Year 2012 dated 6 February 2012) to ban the export of unpro ...
Sunday, 12 February 12
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX CLIMBS 10.51%
COALspot.com - "The markets touched record lows not seen since mid 80’s. However there was some good news with signs of market recovery a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY
The week was highlighted with intense worries in the eurozone for Greece to secure its second bailout of $130billion by applying a ...
Saturday, 11 February 12
WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN THIS SHIPPING CYCLE? - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
A slightly dubious "best man" joke runs as follows… Best man (giving his wedding speech): "Have you noticed how history repeat ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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