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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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