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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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