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Monday, 26 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The Baltic Dry Index follows its upward incline for fourth consecutive week by rising to more than 900 points, up by 37% from the bottom low in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 2nd. Smaller vessel categories, supramax and panamax, are moving higher due to strong fixture activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins with capesizes being still under serious pain from hefty overtonnage and fragile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment. Overall, all vessel indices ended in green, apart from capesizes, with supramax and handysize units experiencing the sharpest gain, near to 9% in contrast with a 6.7% rise in the panamax and 6.6% fall in the capesize segment.
The first quarter of the year is about to end with capesize average time charter earnings falling below $5,000/day, while supramax vessels are earning more than $10,000/day and panamax are trading at almost the same levels with handysizes, more than $8,000/day. The BDI seems that will break the psyclological barrier of 1,000 points in the second quarter of the year as it regains strength from the firm demand for coal, grain and minor bulk cargoes. In terms of coal demand, the prospects are overwhelming for Chinese demand as China imported approximately 20.55 million tons of coal in February, 850,000 tons (4%) more than imported in January and an amazing 204% increase from February 2011 levels.
Capesize vessels seem that will suffer for a longer period of time as Chinese inventories remain hefty, despite their fall to 99,4 million tons, 500,000 tons less than a week ago. In addition, China’s government announcement for an economic growth of less than 8% in 2012 pours more uncertainty in the already volatile iron ore market for the massive buying power of the world’s largest iron ore consumer. BHP Billiton is predicting that the growth of seaborne iron trade will amount to little more than 4.4% over the course of this decade, nearly half the 8.4% growth figure achieved between 2000 and 2010.
One positive sign is that China’s daily crude steel output stood at 1,898 million tones for the first ten days of March, surging 13% from the preceding period, according to data from the China Iron & Steel Association. Steel demand has started to pick up in the world’s top consumer during March amid a gradual recovery in construction activity, but buyers remain wary about a slowdown in economic growth, which may continue to weigh on the steel sector. “Steel demand is warming up as more construction projects resume, but it is still weaker than the corresponding period of last year,” said a steel trader in Beijing.
Fears for the negative impact of last week’s tropical cyclone on the capesize segment have gone as shipping operations at the major Australia’s Port Hedland have now resumed. However, capesize vessels lost more ground this week with average time charter earrings falling to the lowest levels for over a year. The BCI has lost 97 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,369 points, 6.6% down from previous week’s closing with vessels trading at levels of $$4,546/day, when last year were earning more than $10,000/day. Capesize spot rates on Australia to China have dropped to $7.45 per tonne, which shows a return of about $1,500/day for 180,000 dwt tons capesize vessel.
In the panamax segment, South American grain demand remains the key driver force, with BPI posting a 6.7% rise by gaining 65 points more than previous week and vessel earnings moving to more than $8,000/day. But, panamax earnings are still far below than last year’s levels, when there were more than $16,000/day, as they are facing the same headache with capesize vessels, the pain of oversupply.
Supramax and handysize units are on the spotlight as being the star performers from March 2nd by showing continuous weekly increases. The BSI ended at 1035 points last Friday, showing a 39% rise from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $10,000/day, 35% lower than last year’s levels. The BHSI ended at 551 points, 26% up from the beginning of March with vessels earning more than $8,000/day, 29% less than last year.
Amid the volatile Chinese iron ore import market sentiment and the negative forecasts for a slow Chinese economic growth, Australia expects to produce record tonnages of iron ore through much of the decade, nearly all of which will be used to manufacture steel in demand. Australia iron ore exports are estimated to increase by more than 50 percent by 2016/17 compared with last year. Government data release anticipates still strong demand from Chinese steel mills, the biggest buyers. Exports will rise by an annual rate of around 11 percent to reach 767 m million tonnes in 2016/17, the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) predicted.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, said that it plans to boost the output from its mines in Australia western Pilbara to 283 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2013, up from the current 225 million tonnes. David Joyce, managing director of expansion projects, said that although the rate of GDP growth in China is slowing, they remain confident on the basis of the figures that they have seen for a solid growth this year. A positive development for the fate of capesize operators is that Chinese steel demand has started to pick up amid a gradual recovery in construction activity.
Although the negative sentiment that currently persists in Chinese iron ore market, with worries for a long last recession in the world’s largest consumer country, big miners are betting on a soft landing for the world’s second biggest economy. It is believed that China’s import demand would continue to grow over the next several years, albeit at a slower pace, which should be enough reason for commodity producers to continue their expansion plans. “Nobody is saying that demand growth in China for iron ore is going to go away, just that growth rates will not be as high as they were,” said Mike Young, managing director of BC Iron, which relies on sales to China for all its revenue. Furthermore, recent investigations by Raw Materials Group revealed that global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tones per year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for the commodity continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace than during the last decade.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 11 August 12
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE HAS LOST 27.78 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell again in August.
The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month fell 3.32 percent. HBA fell ...
Saturday, 11 August 12
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS SEEN MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery gain 1.29 percent W-o-W on Friday (10 August 2012) closing but lost 1 ...
Friday, 10 August 12
DRY BULK MARKET DROWNING FROM TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been overflowing with new building vessels, despite the fact that demand is more or less (and minus the seasonal factors) ri ...
Thursday, 09 August 12
3RD ANNUAL SHALE GAS
Press Release - With the North American shale gas boom, IBC’s 3rd Annual Shale Gas explores optimal strategies to monetize Asia’s domest ...
Wednesday, 08 August 12
EXPLOITASI AIMS TO RAISE RP 2.7T FOR ACQUISITION - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, publicly listed coal miner PT Exploitasi Energi Indonesia (CNKO) is seeking to raise Rp 2.7 trillion (US$286.2 milli ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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