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Monday, 19 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW: SMALLER VESSELS LEAD RATES HIGHER - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The upward trend of the Baltic Dry Index persists strong from the end of February, spurred from the supramax market that offsets the weakness in the capesize. The Baltic Exchange’s main index has shown an average weekly increase of 6.7% in March with constant gains for the last 16 days. It has moved near to 900 points by closing on Friday March 16th at 874 points, up by 6.07% on a weekly basis, and narrows the gap from the psychological barrier of 1,000 points. Capesize rates continue to be under pressure as spot fixture activity remains muted with average daily earnings standing below $5,500/day. The intense volatility in the iron market halts the solid performance of capesize vessels with panamaxes showing a firmer outlook on the back of a grain season in the Atlantic basin. Supramax vessels are outperforming among other vessel categories, from the beginning of March, with average daily earnings rising to more than $9,000/day.

Overall, all vessel categories experienced positive gains this week apart from capesizes with an euphoria in supramax and handysize vessels that leads the Baltic Dry Index at levels by 35% upwards from February 2nd, when it was at 648 points.

In the capesize segment, the BCI has lost another 37 points on a weekly basis by standing at 1,466 points, 2.46% down from previous week’s closing with vessel earnings below breakeven levels. Average time charter earnings for capesize vessels have fallen by 80% from the end of December 2011, when they were earning more than $27,000/day. An upcoming threat for capesize operators is the tropical cyclone Lua that is expected to cross the North West coast of Western Australia as a category four cyclone, disrupting mining operations and transport in the region.

Capesize spot rates on Australia to China are about $7.70 per tonne, down from about $7.90 per tonne last week, with capesizes halting their iron ore loadings at mining companies’ busiest ports. The Port Hedland iron ore terminal closed on Friday to escape the from Cyclone Lua, and miner Rio Tinto said operations were winding down at the two ports it uses, Dampier and Cape Lambert. The shutdown of Australia's major iron ore exporting port, Port Hedland, would be a negative factor for capesizes’ fixture activity and vessel earnings. Brazilian iron ore exports slumped 37% year on year in January as heavy rainfall disrupted production and demand in China eased.

In the panamax segment, a quiet Pacific market was rebalanced by modest improvements in cargoes from the Atlantic to Asia with vessel earnings moving to more than $7,700/day, but 50% lower from last year’s levels, when they were earning excess $16,000/day. The BPI closed on Friday at 971 points, up by 9.22% from last week with positive prospects for grain and thermal coal fixtures activity that will maintain the healthiest performance of smaller vessel segments against capesizes.

In the supramax market, vessels, which carry about 25 percent less than panamaxes, seem to have a better outlook in the heavy oversupplied dry bulk industry. Average time charter earnings for supramax vessels have shown a strong revival over the last three weeks with earnings more than $9,000/day, when at the end of January they were earning less than $7,000/day. Handysize units also follow with earnings more than $7,500/day, at similar levels with panamax earnings. The BSI closed at 951, up by 10.07% on a weekly basis, compared with a 9% and 8% rise in the panamax and handysize segment respectively.

The strong outlook of the supramax and handysize segment seems that will lift the BDI above the 1,000 points mark, but the outlook of dry bulk earnings is still negative as China cut its growth target last week. The fragile economic outlook of China signals an era of a weaker Chinese demand for iron ore, the world’s biggest buyer of the commodity and the main driver of the positive incline of the BDI.

Chinese iron ore inventories persist at hefty levels, near to 100 million tons, with iron ore import market sentiment showing signs of a slower growth at least till 2015. The government is aiming to boost the volume of imports to be sourced from Chinese invested mines abroad, by another 100m tonnes / year, to reduce the heavy reliance of the country on imports from Australia and Brazil. Moody’s Investors Service has warned that China’s growth in steel demand will slow sharply to 5.7% this year, almost half of the average 11.1% growth during the previous three years. Furthermore, the China Iron and Steel Association has halved its growth estimate for the steel industry from 8% last year to just 4% in 2012.

The dry bulk shipping industry is almost undeniable that will continue to be under serious strains for at least two years that will downsize the financial performance of dry bulk shipping players. According to Standard & Poor’s the dry bulk shipping sector will face the heaviest oversupply pressures over the next 12 to 18 months, compared with oil tanker and container market, and shipping firms will face tighter financing as banks cut their exposure to risky and dollar denominated assets.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping



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