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Monday, 12 March 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The first days of March appear to be more encouraging for dry bulk operators, but the outlook is still gloomy for the rest of year with earnings for large sized vessels, capesizes floating below breakeven levels. The Baltic Dry Index records daily gains for eleven consecutive days, closing on Friday March 9th at 824 points, up by 6.8% on a weekly basis and up by 17% from February 23rd. All vessel categories experienced positive upturn apart from capesizes with supramaxes being the star performers of this week. The Baltic Supramax Index posted a 16% week-on-week increase in contrast with a 5% rise in the panamax and 7% in the handysize segment. Capesize vessel earnings remain downsized with industry players expecting a stronger Chinese steel production in March -April period and massive destocking of iron ore at major ports that will create more cargo loadings and lift earnings, at least near to $10,000/day.
The sentiment in China’s daily steel output has improved in February at 1,93 million tones, up from 1.83 million tons in January and 1.6827 million tons in December, as mills began ramping up operations ahead of a predicted recovery in demand in March and April. The figures of February are considerably higher than the estimates issued by China Iron and Steel Association, which calculated daily crude steel output at less than 1,7 million tones in February. Traders have said that recent destocking activity indicates further improvements in the market over the coming weeks. We may not see an immediate and rapid rise in steel output, but destocking is going on increasingly, so I am optimistic about steel prices because supply hasn't grown much”, said a trader based in Beijing. "Some new construction sites in northern Chinese regions have not started due to the cold snap, but once these new projects begin, it will provide a big lift for steel demand," he said, adding that he expected prices to keep rising until the end of April. China's industry ministry said China's crude steel output was expected to rise 7 percent to 730 million tons this year, after growing 8.9% last year. However, some steel mills have predicted that real demand could remain flat in 2012, and they warn of further losses over the course of the year as they try to overcome longstanding overcapacity issues.
Capesizes, which typically transport 150,000 ton cargoes of iron ore and coal, are currently earning $5,786/day, less than handysizes that earn more than $6,000 daily with the BCI loosing 22 points, down by 1.4% on a weekly basis and standing at 1503 points. Vale has completed its first VLOC transshipment of iron ore, which could drive more capesize tonnage requirements but the impact will be minor given the glut of ships. The long list of available ships for prompt employment continues to weigh heavily on the market with ships struggling to find cargo, especially in the Atlantic market. After a couple of weeks at $7.90, Rio Tinto shaved 10 cents off the rate for a March 21 onwards 160,000-tonne cargo from Dampier to China.
Panamax and supramax units continue to show stronger performance against capesize on the back of a firmer amount of global grain and coal fixtures activity. However, there are always exogenous threats on the prosperity with Indonesian National Shipowners Association, following China’s example, urging the government to pass the Domestic Transporter Obligation, which could mandate that 30% of all Indonesian coal shipments to be shipped on vessels owned by Indonesian shipping companies. According to Indonesian National Shipowners Association, foreign shipowners earned $14.4 billion in 2011 from exporting Indonesian coal with Indonesian shipowners wishing to receive a large share of this earned capital.
Panamaxes are currently earning $7,129/day with the BPI moving 45 points upward, 5.3% up on a weekly basis. The focus remains on east coast South America, with increased grain cargoes particularly for first half April sparking a rise in rates. A 1996-built 73,000 tonner agreed $15,750 daily plus a $575,000 bonus for the run east. Ships from the Continent and Mediterranean, as well as the Indian Ocean and south East Asia, eyed the South American market.
In the supramax market, vessels, which carry about 25 percent less than panamaxes, are the star performers during the first days of March by earning about $9,000/day with the BSI standing at 864 points, up by 16% on a weekly basis. However, supramaxes were getting more than $15,000/day last year, up by 77% from the current levels and 45% higher levels than capesizes. Rates in the Atlantic finally improved after the Far Eastern markets had been leading the way for quite some time. In the East, the south-east Asia mineral trades continued to absorb plenty of tonnage and the market consequently maintained a firming trend.
Handysize vessels, for three consecutive weeks have shown firmer returns with the BHSI standing at 469 points, a 7% week-on-week increase, and earnings rising to $7,106/day, but still 35% lower than last year’s levels.
The glut of new ship deliveries and the weak sentiment in China’s steel market are serious factors with a negative impact on the healthy performance of the capesize segment, which is the main driver lying behind the positive incline of the Baltic Dry Index, above the psychological barrier of 1,000 points mark.
China’s announcement to lower its 2012 growth target to 7.5% after 7 consecutive years darkens the outlook of dry bulk shipping industry with insiders expecting a prolong of the shipping crisis. Moody’s Investor Service said that the global shipping slump is expected to stay till 2013, while growing credit squeeze will challenge even the toughest shipping companies. Rio Tinto PLC's (RIO) iron ore chief executive, Sam Walsh, said that he expects China to remain a key driver of iron ore demand growth, despite recent signs for a slow growth in Chinese economy. China is "resilient," Walsh said, as it is equipped to underline its growth with fiscal and monetary changes and has increasing rates of household and corporate savings.
The country's crude steel consumption is forecasted to be around 1 billion metric tons by 2020, representing just under half of forecast world consumption, he noted. Rio Tinto is planning to invest $2 billion in Indian iron ore mining in Keonjhar district in the Indian federal state of Orissa. Mr. Walsh said that his company intends to raise production in Orissa to 15m tonnes per year “quickly” and at least some of the ore would be sold overseas, enabling shipowners to benefit from increased export demand.
The first quarter of 2012 is near to end and the trends seem to be negative for capesize with a sense of stability in the panamax and a firm growth of earnings in the supramax and handysize segment. The BDI is 18% lower than the 1,000 points mark and the solid performance of supramax vessels may boost the index at higher levels before the end of March.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 08 June 12
MINISTER DENIES COAL EXPORT TAX PLAN, ENDORSES RESTRICTIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta post, one of the leading english news paper in Indonesia reported that, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik has denied that ...
Friday, 08 June 12
NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ADARO'S RATING FROM BEP TRANSACTION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings has said that PT Adaro Indonesia's (Adaro, 'BB+'/ Stable) ratings are not immediately affected by its parent PT Adaro Energy Tbk's ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
DRY BULK MARKET FALLS FOR 10 STRAIGHT SESSION ON OVERSUPPLY PROBLEMS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
A resurgence of oversupply, coupled with national holidays in various parts of the world has contributed to yet another fall of the dry bulk market ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
COAL EXPORT TAX NOT RATIONAL: MINISTER - THE JAKARTA POST
Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan has criticized as irrational the idea to restrict coal exports by imposing an export tax, According to The Jakarta post ...
Thursday, 07 June 12
BY 2022 PLN IS EXPECTED TO BURN AROUND 125 MILLION TONS OF COAL
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state owned electricity company's (PLN) coal consumption is expected to reach 125.7 million tons by 2012.
Nur Pamudj ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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