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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
Monday, 19 December 11
PLN WILL NO LONGER BUY COAL FROM TRADERS
COALspot.com - Indonesia's state electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara will no longer allow traders to become their suppliers, said, its ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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