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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
3rd Mozambique Coal Conference
2-4 July 2012 | Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre , Maputo, Mozambique
http://www.immevents.com/mo ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
BUKIT ASAM EYES 39% RISE IN COAL SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is scouting a 39% increase in coal sales volume to 18.66 million tons this year from last year with ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
PETROSEA SEALS US$188 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk has secured a US$188 million additional contract from its affiliated firm PT S ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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