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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 07 March 12
ASSESS ASIAS POTENTIAL, DEVELOPMENTS AND APPETITE FOR SHALE AT SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - Assess Asia’s Potential, Developments and Appetite for Shale at Shale Gas Summit on 23-24 Apr, 2012 in Beijing
China is rep ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
3RD MOZAMBIQUE COAL CONFERENCE
3rd Mozambique Coal Conference
2-4 July 2012 | Joaquim Chissano International Conference Centre , Maputo, Mozambique
http://www.immevents.com/mo ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
BUKIT ASAM EYES 39% RISE IN COAL SALES - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Bukit Asam Tbk is scouting a 39% increase in coal sales volume to 18.66 million tons this year from last year with ...
Wednesday, 07 March 12
PETROSEA SEALS US$188 MIO CONTRACT - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining contractor PT Petrosea Tbk has secured a US$188 million additional contract from its affiliated firm PT S ...
Monday, 05 March 12
SOUTHGOBI ANNOUNCES AGREEMENT TO SELL ITS THERMAL COAL TSAGAAN TOLGOI DEPOSIT FOR US$ 30 MILLION
SouthGobi Resources Ltd. (TSX: SGQ, HK: 1878) announced today an agreement to sell its thermal coal property, the Tsagaan Tolgoi Deposit to Modun Re ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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