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Wednesday, 07 March 12
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS UP TIMID REBOUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market has kept its rising momentum yesterday, rising for the eighth straight session, on the back of renewed demand for smaller bulk carriers. As a result, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, ended yesterday up by 0.64% to 787 points. Indeed, it was the smaller ship types which kept the market upwards yesterday, versus their larger counterparts which seemed to suffer from thinner demand. The Handysize segment rose by 1.36% according to the Baltic Exchange, while the Supramax one was the main gainer, with a daily increase of 2.6%. by contrast, the Capesize market was down by 0.46% to 1,516 points, while Panamaxes were also trading lower by 0.23% to 852 points.
Still, things are far from well, given the recent emergence of another negative catalyst factor for the future growth of freight rates, especially in the Capesize markets. More specifically, according to the China Iron Ore & Steel Association (CISA), China is aiming to improve its self efficiency in iron ore and continue to consolidate the steel industry in a bid to raise the output of its major steel makers by 10% within the next four years. The government expects the country’s top 10 steel manufacturers to account for 60% of the country’s steel output by 2015, Wang Xiaoqi, CISA vice chairman, said at a recent trade conference held in Beijing.
Meanwhile, according to BIMCO, dry bulk rates are set to remain suppressed during the next few weeks. Capesize Time Charter Average will remain under pressure and stay below $12,000 per day as tonnage oversupply has hit back at a time where demand is taking a small breather. Meanwhile, the report also forecasted that Panamax and Supramax freight rates are likely to develop rather flat and stay in the USD 7,000-13,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to remain close to the operating break-even freight rate level at USD 6,000-8,000 per day interval.
According to BIMCO, “opportunities in the time charter market are gone for now and only the spot market remains in focus. As demand has dozed off, there is a return of pressure from the tonnage oversupply that must go away before rates will be supported by returning demand. Provided that iron ore spot prices will stay competitive/attractive as compared to the domestically mined ore within China, this should support demand, regardless of the level of stockpiles at Chinese ports and a stagnating steel price. But the lift will come in weeks rather than days.
One of the main events during 2012 will be the 19 Vale-connected +400,000 DWT VLOCs that are due for delivery. They come on top of the 5 VLOCs delivered in 2011 and another 125 new Capesize vessels that are going to be delivered in 2012. The “low” level of new Capesize deliveries comes after two mammoth years where 213 (2010) and 248 (2011) were launched and the easing inflow could be further potentially buoyed by another 60 Capesizes being demolished, assuming the 2011-standards for scrap-matured vessels are applied. Even with the extensive focus the VLOC’s have received, in the context of the sheer amount of VLOC-tonnage as a share of the total Capesize fleet, 5% remains minor.
The only seasonal factor that could support rates during the first quarter is thermal coal for heating in the northern hemisphere winter, including China. But pulling in the opposite direction is the structural overcapacity and the seasonal winter rains in Brazil and South Africa and cyclones on the west coast of Australia that delivered a significant blow to freight rates last January as massive amounts of cargo were cut off” said BIMCO in its analysis.
The organization’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand also mentioned, that in terms of supply, «the biggest positive surprise of 2011 was the 22.2 million DWT of demolished tonnage. Of this, 67 were Capesize vessels sold for recycling primarily during the terrible first six months. Characteristics of the average Capesize vessel that left the fleet: 156,845 DWT, 27 years of age, recycled in Bangladesh at USD 509 per Ldt., leaving USD 11.5 million for the owner from taking the vessel out of active trading.
During 2011, an average of 8 million DWT was delivered into the market every single month. This was an unprecedentedly high number – something we hopefully won’t see again before the fleet is twice as big as today in 2034. If January deliveries are to give any indication into 2012, a level of little more than 6 million is relatively positive, as the pace is coming down from 2010-11. However, it’s still a historically very high level.
So far, the active fleet has grown by 1.0% in 2012, caused by delivery of 79 new vessels of 6.4 million DWT, offset by 1.6 million DWT being demolished. BIMCO expects total demolition in 2012 to come down from the 22.1 million DWT that was demolished during 2011 but to stay high, as freight rates are bound to keep pressure on earnings, pushing more over-aged tonnage over the edge. Total inflow of tonnage in 2012 is estimated to hit 78 million DWT, counterbalanced by higher than previously expected demolition of 19 million DWT.
Following the upward adjustment of the demolition potential the dry bulk fleet holds for 2012, the fleet is now set to grow a bit slower at 10% during 2012. As 2011 only saw 26 million DWT being contracted, which was the lowest level since 2002, BIMCO expects 2012 to provide more of the same on that front. Overcapacity bites – and whatever cash reserves are left from before the financial crisis broke in 2008 or leftovers from the surprisingly well 2010 is not expected to be spent on new build first installments. Not even the elevated Capesize earnings that we experienced during the 4th quarter of 2011 made owners call the shipyards to place new orders” stated Sand in his analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 March 12
RESOURCE ALAM FY11 PROFIT UP 171% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, coal mining company PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) reported a 171.16% jump in net profit last year on the back ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
GLOBAL THERMAL TRADE FLOW CHANGES WILL ENSURE SECURITY OF THERMAL COAL SUPPLY, ALBEIT AT A HIGH PRICE - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie Says Global Thermal Trade Flow Changes Will Ensure Security of Thermal Coal Supply, Albeit At a High Price Seaborne thermal demand by ...
Wednesday, 14 March 12
COKAL TAKES ANOTHER STEP IN DEVELOPING INFRASTRUCTURE TO FACILITATE METALLURGICAL COAL PRODUCTION
Global coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), has signed Memorandums of Understanding (MoU’s) to develop two river ports and two small scale coa ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
CLARIFICATION OF GR 24 OF 2012 REQUIRING DIVESTMENT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP OVER TIME
ASX Announcement
Global metallurgical coal group, Cokal Limited (ASX-CKA), is responding to the recent announcement of the Indonesian Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 13 March 12
EUROPEAN COAL CONTANGO: FURTHER STEEPNESS REQUIRED TO MAKE LARGE SCALE PHYSICAL TIME SPREAD ARBITRAGE MORE ATTRACTIVE - MISWIN MAHESH, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
COALspot.com - "With the contango between the Y+1 and M+1 ARA delivered contract now averaging above the $14/t level, there is an increasing in ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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