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Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to levels near or below operating expenses. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 717 points on Friday of February 17th, gaining only two points more than the previous week’s closing and it is now standing 55 points above from the historical low level in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 1st. The dry market normally shows a plunge at the beginning of every year as Chinese festivities bring a lull in iron ore buying activity with the BDI finding its pace upon the return from holidays. However, the index now seems that struggles to keep a steady pace of growth since it is still below the psychological barrier of 1,000 points and it is unquestionable if would surpass this level till the end of February. Following its positive upward movement in the previous week by gaining 68 points more on a weekly basis and panamaxes being the best performers, the sentiment is again distrustful with capesize earnings being extremely flat and handysizes showing a stronger resilience this week.
The BHSI showed a 3.5% week-on-week increase in contrast with a 1.8% week-on-week fall in the BPI from its 39.5% remarkable increase in the week ending February 10th. Overall, the BDI showed a minimal rise of 0.2% on a weekly basis by falling for the last three consecutive days of the week and ending to loose 12 points from the high of 729 points at the beginning of the week. Average time charter earnings for all vessel sizes are still floating at low levels, below $10,000/day, with increased worries for a prompt revival before the end of the first quarter of the year. Panamax and supramax vessels seem to have a better outlook to break the barrier of $10,000/day by earning ground from a strong Chinese coal demand, while capesizes may suffer for a longer period of time since the Chinese iron ore buying appetite, the main driver for healthier capesize earnings, is still fragile.
For large size vessels, capesizes, the market was extremely flat with the BCI gaining only 4 points more at the end of the week by closing at 1461 points, up by 0.27% on a weekly basis. The Atlantic market remains particular inactive despite some iron ore activity from Western Australia. W Australia/Qingdao rates is said to have improved only slightly, to $7,70/tonne, compared to $7,60/tonne last week. In the panamax market, the week opened with a degree of optimism with the index surpassing the 1,000 points mark level, but by the end of the week it fell to 949 points, loosing 18 points, down 1.86% from previous week’s closing.
The week ended also negative for supramax owners with a retreat of decline in Atlantic supramax rates and a rise in Pacific from record lows. Owners with tonnage in the European side found almost impossible to consider the ballast option at the prevailing freight rates and bunkering expenses, while owners in the East with tonnage seem to have better chance with rates covering operating expenses. Some reasonable mineral business from Indonesia gave a substance in the segment with the BSI loosing only 4 points from previous week’s closing and ending at 641 points, down by 0.6% week-on-week basis.
The current status of China’s steel market and the high levels of iron ore inventories do not currently support massive iron ore imports enough to lift the BDI above 1,000 points and capesize earnings at the levels of more than $10,000 day.
According to Data from the General Administration of Customs, imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer of the steel making ingredient, fell 7.4% to 59,32 million tons in January from a month earlier due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Even January gives a distorted picture for Chinese buying sentiment due to National Festivities; China’s steel market remains sluggish. The China Iron and Steel Association reported that daily crude steel production averaged 1,67 million tons from January 21 to January 31. This is similar with the average daily production that occurred during January 11 to January 20, but is down significantly from last year’s record of 2,02 mt average daily production that occurred during June 21 to June 30.
Furthermore, Chinese iron ore inventories reached the alarming level of nearly 100 million mt by the beginning of February and fell to 99.97 million tons by February 13th, but it is still hefty and indicates the slump in demand for steel production in China. Due to lower demand as a result of the slowing economy and tight liquidity, steel prices have been plunging since last October, leaving steel mills with marginal profits or making losses. Major mill Angang Steel, for instance, announced a net loss of some 2.2 billion yuan for 2011 due to rising raw material costs. CISA Chairman Zhu Jimin said that the possibility of losses and meager profits for steel mills is likely to increase this year as increased costs, falling demand and financing difficulties will continue to distress the steel industry.
The hefty amount of Chinese inventories and the lower from the biggest consumer China have plunged the iron ore price last week in the lowest level since October. Ore with 62 percent content at the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1.6 percent to $137.40 per metric ton on Thursday 16th, data from The Steel Index showed. Vale S.A., the world’s second largest miner by volume, reported a 20% fall in its net profit for the fourth quarter of last year by recording $4,67 billion compared with a $5,92 billion a year earlier, citing as primary reason the decline in the iron ore price. Vale reported quarterly sales of $14,8 billion from reduced iron ore prices and the debt crisis that caused European shipments to slump. Credit Suisse predicted in a report that tighter market conditions would continue in 2012 with iron ore prices expected to be weaker. The report stated Brazilian iron ore miners will face lower year-on-year results due to lack of volume growth and 10% lower year on year average price.
However, Australia’s mega iron ore producers are planning to boost production amid current slow Chinese steel demand. Australia supplies about 43 percent of China's iron ore imports, with most coming from BHP, Rio and Fortescue. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts, China's steel demand is expected to grow 6 percent in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013, down from the stunning 12.8 percent compound annual growth during 2008-11.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the biggest mining company, said Feb. 12 a price decline probably won’t affect plans to spend $80 billion over the next five years to boost output along with copper and coal. “The Chinese have been buying well in advance,” said Gavin Wendt, founder and senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty in Sydney. “They like to buy these commodities when the price is low and buy it in significant volumes, essentially more than what they need and stockpile it”.
Fortescue Metals Group is under a construction program to nearly triple production to 155 million tonnes in a year after securing funding last October. Fortescue Metals Group expects iron ore prices will remain around $US140 ($A131.48) per tonne in the short-to-medium term as Chinese demand remains strong but little new supply comes onto the market.Rio Tinto also assigned $3.4 billion to expand iron ore mining in Australia, and expects its iron ore production in Australia to reach 230 million tonnes by the end of this quarter and 283 million by the end of calendar 2013.
The recent downturn of the dry market stemming mainly from slow Chinese demand does not hamper major iron ore producers that still see future in China’s buying power that could lead steel market and vessels earnings at higher levels. The question now is how the freight markets will response to a revamping of Chinese iron ore consuming at the current oversupply tonnage.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 18 November 11
MMTC SEEKS 1.365 MMT OF IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India's MMTC, the largest trading company of India and a major trading company of Asia, has issued a term supply tender for 1.365Mt ...
Friday, 18 November 11
KPC, ARUTMIN OUTPUT REACHED 47.1 MIO TONS - INSIDER STORIES
PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, reported 47.1 million tons of coal production in 9M 2011, according to Indiser Stories.
Insi ...
Friday, 18 November 11
THE ATLANTIC SUPRAMAX MARKET EXPERIENCED A STEADY AND FIRM TENDENCY
Handy
The Atlantic Supramax market experienced a steady and firm tendency this week. Especially the North Atlantic and Mediterranean position ...
Friday, 18 November 11
BERAU COAL 9M PROFIT SOARS 194.46% - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), which is 84.7% owned by Bumi Plc, reported a 194.46% jump in net profit by end of Se ...
Thursday, 17 November 11
DRY BULK MARKET INCHES FORWARD AND INTO HIGHER GROUND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market edged higher yesterday, on the back of stronger demand for Capesize vessels and general improvement of sentiment on most of the ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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