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Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to levels near or below operating expenses. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 717 points on Friday of February 17th, gaining only two points more than the previous week’s closing and it is now standing 55 points above from the historical low level in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 1st. The dry market normally shows a plunge at the beginning of every year as Chinese festivities bring a lull in iron ore buying activity with the BDI finding its pace upon the return from holidays. However, the index now seems that struggles to keep a steady pace of growth since it is still below the psychological barrier of 1,000 points and it is unquestionable if would surpass this level till the end of February. Following its positive upward movement in the previous week by gaining 68 points more on a weekly basis and panamaxes being the best performers, the sentiment is again distrustful with capesize earnings being extremely flat and handysizes showing a stronger resilience this week.
The BHSI showed a 3.5% week-on-week increase in contrast with a 1.8% week-on-week fall in the BPI from its 39.5% remarkable increase in the week ending February 10th. Overall, the BDI showed a minimal rise of 0.2% on a weekly basis by falling for the last three consecutive days of the week and ending to loose 12 points from the high of 729 points at the beginning of the week. Average time charter earnings for all vessel sizes are still floating at low levels, below $10,000/day, with increased worries for a prompt revival before the end of the first quarter of the year. Panamax and supramax vessels seem to have a better outlook to break the barrier of $10,000/day by earning ground from a strong Chinese coal demand, while capesizes may suffer for a longer period of time since the Chinese iron ore buying appetite, the main driver for healthier capesize earnings, is still fragile.
For large size vessels, capesizes, the market was extremely flat with the BCI gaining only 4 points more at the end of the week by closing at 1461 points, up by 0.27% on a weekly basis. The Atlantic market remains particular inactive despite some iron ore activity from Western Australia. W Australia/Qingdao rates is said to have improved only slightly, to $7,70/tonne, compared to $7,60/tonne last week. In the panamax market, the week opened with a degree of optimism with the index surpassing the 1,000 points mark level, but by the end of the week it fell to 949 points, loosing 18 points, down 1.86% from previous week’s closing.
The week ended also negative for supramax owners with a retreat of decline in Atlantic supramax rates and a rise in Pacific from record lows. Owners with tonnage in the European side found almost impossible to consider the ballast option at the prevailing freight rates and bunkering expenses, while owners in the East with tonnage seem to have better chance with rates covering operating expenses. Some reasonable mineral business from Indonesia gave a substance in the segment with the BSI loosing only 4 points from previous week’s closing and ending at 641 points, down by 0.6% week-on-week basis.
The current status of China’s steel market and the high levels of iron ore inventories do not currently support massive iron ore imports enough to lift the BDI above 1,000 points and capesize earnings at the levels of more than $10,000 day.
According to Data from the General Administration of Customs, imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer of the steel making ingredient, fell 7.4% to 59,32 million tons in January from a month earlier due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Even January gives a distorted picture for Chinese buying sentiment due to National Festivities; China’s steel market remains sluggish. The China Iron and Steel Association reported that daily crude steel production averaged 1,67 million tons from January 21 to January 31. This is similar with the average daily production that occurred during January 11 to January 20, but is down significantly from last year’s record of 2,02 mt average daily production that occurred during June 21 to June 30.
Furthermore, Chinese iron ore inventories reached the alarming level of nearly 100 million mt by the beginning of February and fell to 99.97 million tons by February 13th, but it is still hefty and indicates the slump in demand for steel production in China. Due to lower demand as a result of the slowing economy and tight liquidity, steel prices have been plunging since last October, leaving steel mills with marginal profits or making losses. Major mill Angang Steel, for instance, announced a net loss of some 2.2 billion yuan for 2011 due to rising raw material costs. CISA Chairman Zhu Jimin said that the possibility of losses and meager profits for steel mills is likely to increase this year as increased costs, falling demand and financing difficulties will continue to distress the steel industry.
The hefty amount of Chinese inventories and the lower from the biggest consumer China have plunged the iron ore price last week in the lowest level since October. Ore with 62 percent content at the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1.6 percent to $137.40 per metric ton on Thursday 16th, data from The Steel Index showed. Vale S.A., the world’s second largest miner by volume, reported a 20% fall in its net profit for the fourth quarter of last year by recording $4,67 billion compared with a $5,92 billion a year earlier, citing as primary reason the decline in the iron ore price. Vale reported quarterly sales of $14,8 billion from reduced iron ore prices and the debt crisis that caused European shipments to slump. Credit Suisse predicted in a report that tighter market conditions would continue in 2012 with iron ore prices expected to be weaker. The report stated Brazilian iron ore miners will face lower year-on-year results due to lack of volume growth and 10% lower year on year average price.
However, Australia’s mega iron ore producers are planning to boost production amid current slow Chinese steel demand. Australia supplies about 43 percent of China's iron ore imports, with most coming from BHP, Rio and Fortescue. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts, China's steel demand is expected to grow 6 percent in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013, down from the stunning 12.8 percent compound annual growth during 2008-11.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the biggest mining company, said Feb. 12 a price decline probably won’t affect plans to spend $80 billion over the next five years to boost output along with copper and coal. “The Chinese have been buying well in advance,” said Gavin Wendt, founder and senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty in Sydney. “They like to buy these commodities when the price is low and buy it in significant volumes, essentially more than what they need and stockpile it”.
Fortescue Metals Group is under a construction program to nearly triple production to 155 million tonnes in a year after securing funding last October. Fortescue Metals Group expects iron ore prices will remain around $US140 ($A131.48) per tonne in the short-to-medium term as Chinese demand remains strong but little new supply comes onto the market.Rio Tinto also assigned $3.4 billion to expand iron ore mining in Australia, and expects its iron ore production in Australia to reach 230 million tonnes by the end of this quarter and 283 million by the end of calendar 2013.
The recent downturn of the dry market stemming mainly from slow Chinese demand does not hamper major iron ore producers that still see future in China’s buying power that could lead steel market and vessels earnings at higher levels. The question now is how the freight markets will response to a revamping of Chinese iron ore consuming at the current oversupply tonnage.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 19 February 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES WERE REPORTED AT HIGH LEVELS - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - "The markets seems to holding back this week appears the momentum which picked up last week may slow down" - Capt. Reddy of ...
Sunday, 19 February 12
INDIKA ACQUIRES MULTI TAMBANGJAYA - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) announced that wholly-owned subsidiaries have signed a conditional sale and purchase agre ...
Friday, 17 February 12
COLOMBIA COAL PRODUCTION, EXPORTS JUMP IN 2011: GOVT - COLOMBIA REPORTS
Colombia Reports reported that, colombia's coal production jumped 15.4% in 2011 to 85.8 million tonnes versus the previous year while exports rose ...
Thursday, 16 February 12
GEARING UP FOR THE EMERGING OIL & GAS OPPORTUNITIES IN MYANMAR
Press Release - Myanmar Ministry of Energy and Centre for Management Technology (CMT) to Co-host MOGP (Myanmar Oil, Gas & Power) Summit on 28 - ...
Wednesday, 15 February 12
HBA FOR FEB 2012, CLIMBS 2.09 PERCENT AND REACHED US$ 111.58 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Indonesian coal reference price for February climbs 2.09 percent to US$111.58 per ton after losing past three months. ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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