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Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to levels near or below operating expenses. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 717 points on Friday of February 17th, gaining only two points more than the previous week’s closing and it is now standing 55 points above from the historical low level in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 1st. The dry market normally shows a plunge at the beginning of every year as Chinese festivities bring a lull in iron ore buying activity with the BDI finding its pace upon the return from holidays. However, the index now seems that struggles to keep a steady pace of growth since it is still below the psychological barrier of 1,000 points and it is unquestionable if would surpass this level till the end of February. Following its positive upward movement in the previous week by gaining 68 points more on a weekly basis and panamaxes being the best performers, the sentiment is again distrustful with capesize earnings being extremely flat and handysizes showing a stronger resilience this week.
The BHSI showed a 3.5% week-on-week increase in contrast with a 1.8% week-on-week fall in the BPI from its 39.5% remarkable increase in the week ending February 10th. Overall, the BDI showed a minimal rise of 0.2% on a weekly basis by falling for the last three consecutive days of the week and ending to loose 12 points from the high of 729 points at the beginning of the week. Average time charter earnings for all vessel sizes are still floating at low levels, below $10,000/day, with increased worries for a prompt revival before the end of the first quarter of the year. Panamax and supramax vessels seem to have a better outlook to break the barrier of $10,000/day by earning ground from a strong Chinese coal demand, while capesizes may suffer for a longer period of time since the Chinese iron ore buying appetite, the main driver for healthier capesize earnings, is still fragile.
For large size vessels, capesizes, the market was extremely flat with the BCI gaining only 4 points more at the end of the week by closing at 1461 points, up by 0.27% on a weekly basis. The Atlantic market remains particular inactive despite some iron ore activity from Western Australia. W Australia/Qingdao rates is said to have improved only slightly, to $7,70/tonne, compared to $7,60/tonne last week. In the panamax market, the week opened with a degree of optimism with the index surpassing the 1,000 points mark level, but by the end of the week it fell to 949 points, loosing 18 points, down 1.86% from previous week’s closing.
The week ended also negative for supramax owners with a retreat of decline in Atlantic supramax rates and a rise in Pacific from record lows. Owners with tonnage in the European side found almost impossible to consider the ballast option at the prevailing freight rates and bunkering expenses, while owners in the East with tonnage seem to have better chance with rates covering operating expenses. Some reasonable mineral business from Indonesia gave a substance in the segment with the BSI loosing only 4 points from previous week’s closing and ending at 641 points, down by 0.6% week-on-week basis.
The current status of China’s steel market and the high levels of iron ore inventories do not currently support massive iron ore imports enough to lift the BDI above 1,000 points and capesize earnings at the levels of more than $10,000 day.
According to Data from the General Administration of Customs, imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer of the steel making ingredient, fell 7.4% to 59,32 million tons in January from a month earlier due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Even January gives a distorted picture for Chinese buying sentiment due to National Festivities; China’s steel market remains sluggish. The China Iron and Steel Association reported that daily crude steel production averaged 1,67 million tons from January 21 to January 31. This is similar with the average daily production that occurred during January 11 to January 20, but is down significantly from last year’s record of 2,02 mt average daily production that occurred during June 21 to June 30.
Furthermore, Chinese iron ore inventories reached the alarming level of nearly 100 million mt by the beginning of February and fell to 99.97 million tons by February 13th, but it is still hefty and indicates the slump in demand for steel production in China. Due to lower demand as a result of the slowing economy and tight liquidity, steel prices have been plunging since last October, leaving steel mills with marginal profits or making losses. Major mill Angang Steel, for instance, announced a net loss of some 2.2 billion yuan for 2011 due to rising raw material costs. CISA Chairman Zhu Jimin said that the possibility of losses and meager profits for steel mills is likely to increase this year as increased costs, falling demand and financing difficulties will continue to distress the steel industry.
The hefty amount of Chinese inventories and the lower from the biggest consumer China have plunged the iron ore price last week in the lowest level since October. Ore with 62 percent content at the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1.6 percent to $137.40 per metric ton on Thursday 16th, data from The Steel Index showed. Vale S.A., the world’s second largest miner by volume, reported a 20% fall in its net profit for the fourth quarter of last year by recording $4,67 billion compared with a $5,92 billion a year earlier, citing as primary reason the decline in the iron ore price. Vale reported quarterly sales of $14,8 billion from reduced iron ore prices and the debt crisis that caused European shipments to slump. Credit Suisse predicted in a report that tighter market conditions would continue in 2012 with iron ore prices expected to be weaker. The report stated Brazilian iron ore miners will face lower year-on-year results due to lack of volume growth and 10% lower year on year average price.
However, Australia’s mega iron ore producers are planning to boost production amid current slow Chinese steel demand. Australia supplies about 43 percent of China's iron ore imports, with most coming from BHP, Rio and Fortescue. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts, China's steel demand is expected to grow 6 percent in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013, down from the stunning 12.8 percent compound annual growth during 2008-11.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the biggest mining company, said Feb. 12 a price decline probably won’t affect plans to spend $80 billion over the next five years to boost output along with copper and coal. “The Chinese have been buying well in advance,” said Gavin Wendt, founder and senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty in Sydney. “They like to buy these commodities when the price is low and buy it in significant volumes, essentially more than what they need and stockpile it”.
Fortescue Metals Group is under a construction program to nearly triple production to 155 million tonnes in a year after securing funding last October. Fortescue Metals Group expects iron ore prices will remain around $US140 ($A131.48) per tonne in the short-to-medium term as Chinese demand remains strong but little new supply comes onto the market.Rio Tinto also assigned $3.4 billion to expand iron ore mining in Australia, and expects its iron ore production in Australia to reach 230 million tonnes by the end of this quarter and 283 million by the end of calendar 2013.
The recent downturn of the dry market stemming mainly from slow Chinese demand does not hamper major iron ore producers that still see future in China’s buying power that could lead steel market and vessels earnings at higher levels. The question now is how the freight markets will response to a revamping of Chinese iron ore consuming at the current oversupply tonnage.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 18 April 12
INDONESIA TO INTRODUCE EXPORT DUTY ON MINERAL ORES BY 6 MAY 2012
The Indonesian government is scheduled to issue regulation on export duty for minerals before May 6, 2012.
According to Bisnis Indonesia, as quot ...
Sunday, 15 April 12
THE SPOT FIXTURE RATES FOR SUPRAMAX IN SE ASIA SAW SOME SOFTENING OF CHARTER RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The market seem to be holding and except for Supramax and handy size index all other index was up with BDI up by 4.74 pct closing at ...
Friday, 13 April 12
MINERS OPPOSE GOVTS EXPORT TAX PLAN - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Indonesian mining companies have strongly protested the government’s plan to impose a 25 percent export tax on ...
Friday, 13 April 12
S&P CAUTIONS AGAINST NEW INDONESIAN MINING REGULATIONS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Investors may have expressed concerns about looming new mining regulations, but ratings agency Standard & Poor& ...
Thursday, 12 April 12
FIRST QUARTER OF 2012 SAW AN ADDITIONAL 24.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK CARRIERS ENTERING THE FLEET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The inflow of newbuilt dry bulk vessels was larger than expected in the first quarter of 2012. As much as 24.2 million DWT were added to the fleet. ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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