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Monday, 20 February 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU
The dry market experienced one more disappointing week with tonnage oversupply and limited cargo demand that pushes earnings for shipping players to levels near or below operating expenses. The Baltic Dry Index closed at 717 points on Friday of February 17th, gaining only two points more than the previous week’s closing and it is now standing 55 points above from the historical low level in the last 26 years of 662 points on February 1st. The dry market normally shows a plunge at the beginning of every year as Chinese festivities bring a lull in iron ore buying activity with the BDI finding its pace upon the return from holidays. However, the index now seems that struggles to keep a steady pace of growth since it is still below the psychological barrier of 1,000 points and it is unquestionable if would surpass this level till the end of February. Following its positive upward movement in the previous week by gaining 68 points more on a weekly basis and panamaxes being the best performers, the sentiment is again distrustful with capesize earnings being extremely flat and handysizes showing a stronger resilience this week.
The BHSI showed a 3.5% week-on-week increase in contrast with a 1.8% week-on-week fall in the BPI from its 39.5% remarkable increase in the week ending February 10th. Overall, the BDI showed a minimal rise of 0.2% on a weekly basis by falling for the last three consecutive days of the week and ending to loose 12 points from the high of 729 points at the beginning of the week. Average time charter earnings for all vessel sizes are still floating at low levels, below $10,000/day, with increased worries for a prompt revival before the end of the first quarter of the year. Panamax and supramax vessels seem to have a better outlook to break the barrier of $10,000/day by earning ground from a strong Chinese coal demand, while capesizes may suffer for a longer period of time since the Chinese iron ore buying appetite, the main driver for healthier capesize earnings, is still fragile.
For large size vessels, capesizes, the market was extremely flat with the BCI gaining only 4 points more at the end of the week by closing at 1461 points, up by 0.27% on a weekly basis. The Atlantic market remains particular inactive despite some iron ore activity from Western Australia. W Australia/Qingdao rates is said to have improved only slightly, to $7,70/tonne, compared to $7,60/tonne last week. In the panamax market, the week opened with a degree of optimism with the index surpassing the 1,000 points mark level, but by the end of the week it fell to 949 points, loosing 18 points, down 1.86% from previous week’s closing.
The week ended also negative for supramax owners with a retreat of decline in Atlantic supramax rates and a rise in Pacific from record lows. Owners with tonnage in the European side found almost impossible to consider the ballast option at the prevailing freight rates and bunkering expenses, while owners in the East with tonnage seem to have better chance with rates covering operating expenses. Some reasonable mineral business from Indonesia gave a substance in the segment with the BSI loosing only 4 points from previous week’s closing and ending at 641 points, down by 0.6% week-on-week basis.
The current status of China’s steel market and the high levels of iron ore inventories do not currently support massive iron ore imports enough to lift the BDI above 1,000 points and capesize earnings at the levels of more than $10,000 day.
According to Data from the General Administration of Customs, imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer of the steel making ingredient, fell 7.4% to 59,32 million tons in January from a month earlier due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Even January gives a distorted picture for Chinese buying sentiment due to National Festivities; China’s steel market remains sluggish. The China Iron and Steel Association reported that daily crude steel production averaged 1,67 million tons from January 21 to January 31. This is similar with the average daily production that occurred during January 11 to January 20, but is down significantly from last year’s record of 2,02 mt average daily production that occurred during June 21 to June 30.
Furthermore, Chinese iron ore inventories reached the alarming level of nearly 100 million mt by the beginning of February and fell to 99.97 million tons by February 13th, but it is still hefty and indicates the slump in demand for steel production in China. Due to lower demand as a result of the slowing economy and tight liquidity, steel prices have been plunging since last October, leaving steel mills with marginal profits or making losses. Major mill Angang Steel, for instance, announced a net loss of some 2.2 billion yuan for 2011 due to rising raw material costs. CISA Chairman Zhu Jimin said that the possibility of losses and meager profits for steel mills is likely to increase this year as increased costs, falling demand and financing difficulties will continue to distress the steel industry.
The hefty amount of Chinese inventories and the lower from the biggest consumer China have plunged the iron ore price last week in the lowest level since October. Ore with 62 percent content at the Chinese port of Tianjin fell 1.6 percent to $137.40 per metric ton on Thursday 16th, data from The Steel Index showed. Vale S.A., the world’s second largest miner by volume, reported a 20% fall in its net profit for the fourth quarter of last year by recording $4,67 billion compared with a $5,92 billion a year earlier, citing as primary reason the decline in the iron ore price. Vale reported quarterly sales of $14,8 billion from reduced iron ore prices and the debt crisis that caused European shipments to slump. Credit Suisse predicted in a report that tighter market conditions would continue in 2012 with iron ore prices expected to be weaker. The report stated Brazilian iron ore miners will face lower year-on-year results due to lack of volume growth and 10% lower year on year average price.
However, Australia’s mega iron ore producers are planning to boost production amid current slow Chinese steel demand. Australia supplies about 43 percent of China's iron ore imports, with most coming from BHP, Rio and Fortescue. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch forecasts, China's steel demand is expected to grow 6 percent in 2012 and 5.8 percent in 2013, down from the stunning 12.8 percent compound annual growth during 2008-11.
BHP Billiton Ltd., the biggest mining company, said Feb. 12 a price decline probably won’t affect plans to spend $80 billion over the next five years to boost output along with copper and coal. “The Chinese have been buying well in advance,” said Gavin Wendt, founder and senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty in Sydney. “They like to buy these commodities when the price is low and buy it in significant volumes, essentially more than what they need and stockpile it”.
Fortescue Metals Group is under a construction program to nearly triple production to 155 million tonnes in a year after securing funding last October. Fortescue Metals Group expects iron ore prices will remain around $US140 ($A131.48) per tonne in the short-to-medium term as Chinese demand remains strong but little new supply comes onto the market.Rio Tinto also assigned $3.4 billion to expand iron ore mining in Australia, and expects its iron ore production in Australia to reach 230 million tonnes by the end of this quarter and 283 million by the end of calendar 2013.
The recent downturn of the dry market stemming mainly from slow Chinese demand does not hamper major iron ore producers that still see future in China’s buying power that could lead steel market and vessels earnings at higher levels. The question now is how the freight markets will response to a revamping of Chinese iron ore consuming at the current oversupply tonnage.
Source: Maria Bertzeletou Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 15 May 12
POTENTIAL BOOM OF CHINAS COAL IMPORTS COULD PROVIDE FURTHER SUPPORT TO DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been moving sideways during the past week with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) losing 0.53% on th ...
Saturday, 12 May 12
THE SHIPPING MARKET IS UNLIKELY TO SEE A REBOUND ANYTIME SOON - VISTAAR SINGAPORE
COALspot.com - The BDI softened this week and it was down by 1.64 pct closing at 1,138 points.
The cape index was up by 2.41 pct closing at 1,61 ...
Friday, 11 May 12
POLITICAL CHANGES COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY HALT IN SHIPPING INVESTMENTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The potential of changes of political leadership in many of the world’s leading economies could very well lead to significant shifts in the di ...
Thursday, 10 May 12
DRY BULK ERRATIC ON LACK OF DIRECTION - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept up its erratic behavior as it went down again during yesterday’s session, on a lack of direct guidance in terms o ...
Wednesday, 09 May 12
COAL INDIA SIGNS FSAS WITH 13 POWER UNITS SO FAR - PTI
Press Trust of India has reported that, coal India has so far entered into fuel supply pacts with 13 power units, including Reliance Power's Rosa P ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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