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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 04 April 12
CHURCHILL MINING TO ACCELERATE INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST INDONESIA
Churchill Mining plc (AIM: CHL), advises that notations on the Indonesian Supreme Court's register of cases shows the Supreme Court has rejected th ...
Monday, 02 April 12
BANGLADESH EYEING INDONESIA FOR COAL
COALspot.com - The high level executives of Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) of Bangladesh is visiting Ind ...
Monday, 02 April 12
WEEKLY DRY MARKET OVERVIEW - MARIA BERTZELETOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The first quarter of the New Year ended with the BDI standing 42% above from the 26 years’ bottom low of 662 points on February 1st, and a pos ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
THE BDI CONTINUED TO MOVE UPWARD - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to move upward and rose by 2.86 pct closing at 934 points.
The cape index was up by 3.14 pct closing at 1,412 po ...
Saturday, 31 March 12
SRI LANKA IMPORTS 152,555 MT OF INDONESIAN COAL IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 27.126* million tons of coal in February 2012, compared to 28.21* million to ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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