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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 22 May 12
NEW ONE-YEAR TIME CHARTERS FOR TWO VESSELS OF EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS LTD.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM), an owner and operator of dry bulk carriers and an international provider of worldwide seaborne transportat ...
Tuesday, 22 May 12
DRY BULK MARKET STEADY, AWAITING FURTHER RISE IN DEMAND WHICH IS DOUBTFUL - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Traditionally, the second and third quarters of the year are the strongest for the dry bulk market, but this year, things seem to be quite subdued, ...
Sunday, 20 May 12
SPOT FREIGHT RATE DIPS FURTHER - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was marginally up by 3 points (0.26 pct) closing at 1,141 points.
The cape index was up by 1.17 pct closing at 1,633 point ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS DROP US$ 2.88 PMT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Indonesian sub-bituminous coal swaps and CFR South China coal contracts for June deliveries have drops this week by 3.86 percent and& ...
Saturday, 19 May 12
INDONESIAN EXPORT TAX GIVES COAL MINERS A CHEAP RIDE: ANALYSTS - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reported that, Indonesia’s policy to exclude coal from an export tax that has been applied to 14 other mineral commodities h ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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