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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 06 June 12
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICES CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - Indonesian HBA fell to lowest level since January 2011 in June 2012. The monthly coal reference price for coal sales this month ...
Monday, 04 June 12
MITRABAHTERA SUBSIDIARY SECURES CONTRACT FROM BERAU COAL - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Mitra Alam Segara Sejati, a subsidiary that is 60% owned by PT Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati Tbk (MBSS), has secur ...
Sunday, 03 June 12
TTI ESTABLISHES COAL TRADING & MARKETING OFFICE
COALspot.com - TTI has officially established its coal trading, marketing-office in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT. Gunung Tinggi Coal is the TTI’s fi ...
Sunday, 03 June 12
FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUING ITS DECLINE
COALspot.com - The BDI continued to fall for the fifth straight week and the BDI fell by 2.57 pct this week closing at 904 points.
The Cape Size ...
Friday, 01 June 12
TNPL HAS SECURED 300K MT OF 6000 GAD COAL AT US$ 81 CNF TUTICORIN
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Adani has offered the lowest price of US$ 81.00 per metric ton for calorific value of 6000 GAD and 15 perc ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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