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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 23 July 12
NTPC INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF LOW MOISTURE IMPORTED COAL
COALspot.com - India’s largest electricity generator, NTPC Limited, incorporated in 1975 as a public sector company wholly owned by Government ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
NEW CHAIRMAN FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL ASSOCIATION
The Australian Coal Association (ACA) announced that Mr Ross Willims has been appointed as its new independent Chairman effective November 5 2012. M ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
CENTRAL KALIMANTAN COAL RAILWAY NETWORK WILL BE BUILT BY 2015 - THE BORNEO POST
The borneo post reported that, a declaration to build a coal railway network is signed today (12/07/2012) in front of the Indonesian Vice President ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
COAL PRICES IN MIXED TRENDS; STOCKS REMAIN HIGH AT BOTH ENDS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for September 2012 delivery fell 0.99 percent on last Friday closing (d-o-d) and 1.19 percent com ...
Sunday, 22 July 12
TATA POWER SIGNS A LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH PT ANTANG GUNUNG MERATUS, INDONESIA
COALspot.com - Tata Power, India’s largest integrated power utility, last Friday announced that it has signed a long term coal suppl ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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