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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 10 September 12
TNPL, AN INDIAN PAPER MAKER IS SEEKING FOR 300K MT OF IMPORTED NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 6 Shipments about 50,0 ...
Monday, 10 September 12
DRY BULK MARKET SLOWLY BUT SURELY REACHING CRITICAL STATUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The radical consequences of the shifts in dry bulk demand and prices, especially for the most sought after commodity, concerning the industry, i.e. ...
Monday, 10 September 12
ORPHEUS ENERGY SECURES INDONESIAN COAL TRADING LICENSE
COALspot.com - Indonesian coal producer, Orpheus Energy (ASX:OEG) has announced today that the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources h ...
Monday, 10 September 12
A SNAPSHOT ON THE ECONOMIC AND SHIPPING ENVIRONMENT - GOLDEN DESTINY / HELLENIC SHIPPING
The European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% focusing on pushing down borrowing costs in troubled economies, Spain and Italy. ...
Sunday, 09 September 12
H213 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE TRADING HIGHER
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for October 2012 delivery lost 0.14 percent W-O-W on 7 September 2012, Friday closing but gained ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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