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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 20 September 12
DRY BULK INCHES FORWARD AFTER WEEKS OF BELOW PAR PERFORMANCE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has started to revive from its ashed, as the past couple of days, traders have reported an increased activity from China, result ...
Wednesday, 19 September 12
CHURCHILL STRENGTHENS LITIGATION TEAM WITH APPOINTMENT OF NICHOLAS SMITH AS MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Churchill Mining PLC (AIM: CHL) has announced that, Mr Nicholas Smith has joined the board of the Company and has been appointed as t ...
Wednesday, 19 September 12
DRY BULK TERMINALS SINGAPORE
Press Release - Dry bulk terminals are used all around the world to handle large quantities of bulk materials, like minerals, grains, etc. In today& ...
Tuesday, 18 September 12
JORC CODE REVISION - EXPOSURE DRAFT RELEASED FOR COMMENT
COALspot.com - The Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) has today released for public comment the exposure draft of the JORC Code (2012) ...
Monday, 17 September 12
YEAR TO DATE, BUMA PRODUCED 231.1 MILLION BCM OF OVERBURDEN
COALspot.com - PT. Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk has removed 31.5 million bcm (+6.0 percent YoY) overburden in August 2012 totaled 31.5 million bcm ( ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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