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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 05 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 10.77 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,412,497 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 4 February 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 05 February 13
CHALLENGER DEEP RESOURCES CORP HAS ENTERED INTO AN EXCLUSIVE MINING AND MARKETING AGREEMENT WITH KEM
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its wholly owned subsidiary, PT Bestindo Energy, has entered into an Exclusivity Agreement r ...
Saturday, 02 February 13
ADARO TO INTRODUCE A NEW BRAND OF ENVIROCOAL, E4700, IN 2013
COALspot.com - Adaro Energy, an Indonesian and leading coal producer in country has achieved a record coal production during 4Q12 of 13.31 mil ...
Saturday, 02 February 13
FREIGHT MARKET MAY REBOUND AFTER CHINESE NEW YEAR - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down by around 5-7 pct this week.
The BDI was down 6.01 pct closing at 750 po ...
Friday, 01 February 13
ORPHEUS SELLS B26 COAL PROJECTS FOR US$ 2 MILLION TO FOCUS ON SOUTH KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX: OEG) has announced that it has sold its 51 percent equity stake in the East Kalimantan coal projects, Bl ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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