We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 26 February 13
10TH CLEAN COAL FORUM WILL BE HELD ON JUNE 2013
CDMC Events will be presenting the 10th Clean Coal Forum 2013 on June 13 - 14, 2013 in Beijing,China.
It will make you understand regulatory asp ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
COAL SWAPS INCH UP WEEK - ON - WEEK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.17 percent and CFR South China coal shipme ...
Sunday, 24 February 13
BDI FELL 1.72 PERCENT BUT FREIGHT MARKET FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady this week but, BDI fell1.72 pct and closed at 740 points.
The cape index also joins BDI ...
Saturday, 23 February 13
IHS MCCLOSKEY 20TH ANNUAL COAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS
IHS McCloskey 20th Annual Coal Conference of the Americas to be held on 13-14 March 2013 in Cartagena, Colombia
IHS is pleased to invite you to t ...
Thursday, 21 February 13
HANDY : THE PACIFIC MARKET GOT FIRMED UP AS CHINESE CAME BACK FROM HOLIDAYS - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week but rates remained unchanged as lot of ships in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Bla ...
|
|
|
Showing 4371 to 4375 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
