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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 14 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RISING MOMENTUM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has maintained its rising momentum, on the back of increased cargo availability. According to yesterday's figures, the industry ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SHIPPERS AND CARRIERS NEED GREATER COMMUNICATION AND MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING
Press Release – Shippers and shipping lines both need to raise their game if global container supply chains are not to be habitually subject t ...
Wednesday, 13 March 13
NEWBUILDING PRICES EXHIBIT NO FALL IN PAST SIX MONTHS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that oversupply has been the key plague of the shipping markets in recent years and newbuilding ordering activity has receded subst ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
COAL MINING PRIVATIZATION IN INDIA: MUST - SUNIL K KUMBHAT
COALspot.com - India has the one of the richest coal reserves in the world and the country should have shown significant progress and gained the pos ...
Tuesday, 12 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.47 MILLION TONS OF COAL W/E 11 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,471,080 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 11 March 2013, Newcast ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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