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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 15 April 13
SUB - BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has gained 2.70 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Saturday, 13 April 13
THE FREIGHT MARKETS EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market firmed up this week and all sectors were up except for Supramax index.
The BDI was up by 1.62 pct closing at 8 ...
Friday, 12 April 13
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS DEVELOPED NEWFOUND APPETITE FOR BULKERS DURING FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's official; more and more ship owners operating in the dry bulk market appear to have developed a newfound optimism in the market's prospects. ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
HANDY: INDO - INDIA NOW BEEN REPORTED AT APS BASIS AT USD 10K+BB 85K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain with not many cargoes seen this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacifi ...
Thursday, 11 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 15.96 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,545,914 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 8 April 2013, Newcas ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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