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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 14 May 13
KALIMANTAN COAL
Press Release : After a very successful conference in 2012, the second annual event will address latest market developments and address the future p ...
Tuesday, 14 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 6.83 PERCENT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,771,891 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 13 May 2013, Newcast ...
Monday, 13 May 13
SGX ASIACLEAR OTC COAL SWAPS : RELATIVELY STABLE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.15 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 11 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com - This week the market remained flat compared to last week. BDI slightly up 0.68 pct and closed at 884 points and the cape size index u ...
Friday, 10 May 13
U.S. PRODUCED TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.5 MMST OF COAL W/E 4 MAY 2013
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a week (For the week ended 4 May, 2013), EIA said in it ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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